dying·humanity
EVIDENCE LIVE FEED
2026-05-20Carbon Brief12-month global temperature anomaly stays above 1.55°C for the third consecutive year.·2026-02-05FASNew START Treaty officially expires with no successor agreement; nuclear-arms-control architecture collapses.·2025-12-04ReutersEuropean far-right gains in multiple national elections; centrist coalitions struggle to form.·2025-11-12ReutersWhite-collar AI layoffs accelerate across legal, marketing, and customer-support sectors.·2025-10-30WHOWHO: adolescent mental-health diagnoses up sharply versus pre-pandemic baseline.·2025-09-15LancetLancet study: indirect death toll from Gaza war likely exceeds 186,000.·2025-07-22CopernicusEurope shatters multiple national heat records in July heatwave; 50°C hit in parts of the south.·2025-06-22CNNUS bombs Iranian nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan during '12-day war.'·2025-06-13ReutersIsrael launches large-scale strikes on Iranian nuclear and command targets.·2025-04-30BBCIndia and Pakistan exchange strikes after Pahalgam attack in Kashmir.·2025-04-02ReutersTrump announces sweeping 'reciprocal' tariffs; global markets sell off hard.·2025-02-06ReutersTrump pauses most USAID funding; foreign-aid programs and partners scramble.·2025-01-20ReutersTrump returns to the White House; day-one executive orders on tariffs, deportations, climate, and TikTok.·2024-12-08ReutersBashar al-Assad regime falls in Syria after 53 years; rebels enter Damascus.·2024-11-21Al JazeeraICC issues arrest warrant for Netanyahu over Gaza war crimes allegations.·2024-11-05APDonald Trump wins second term; Republicans take both chambers of Congress.·2024-09-27ReutersIsraeli airstrike kills Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut.·2024-09-17ReutersCoordinated pager attacks in Lebanon kill dozens and wound thousands attributed to Hezbollah.·2026-05-20Carbon Brief12-month global temperature anomaly stays above 1.55°C for the third consecutive year.·2026-02-05FASNew START Treaty officially expires with no successor agreement; nuclear-arms-control architecture collapses.·2025-12-04ReutersEuropean far-right gains in multiple national elections; centrist coalitions struggle to form.·2025-11-12ReutersWhite-collar AI layoffs accelerate across legal, marketing, and customer-support sectors.·2025-10-30WHOWHO: adolescent mental-health diagnoses up sharply versus pre-pandemic baseline.·2025-09-15LancetLancet study: indirect death toll from Gaza war likely exceeds 186,000.·2025-07-22CopernicusEurope shatters multiple national heat records in July heatwave; 50°C hit in parts of the south.·2025-06-22CNNUS bombs Iranian nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan during '12-day war.'·2025-06-13ReutersIsrael launches large-scale strikes on Iranian nuclear and command targets.·2025-04-30BBCIndia and Pakistan exchange strikes after Pahalgam attack in Kashmir.·2025-04-02ReutersTrump announces sweeping 'reciprocal' tariffs; global markets sell off hard.·2025-02-06ReutersTrump pauses most USAID funding; foreign-aid programs and partners scramble.·2025-01-20ReutersTrump returns to the White House; day-one executive orders on tariffs, deportations, climate, and TikTok.·2024-12-08ReutersBashar al-Assad regime falls in Syria after 53 years; rebels enter Damascus.·2024-11-21Al JazeeraICC issues arrest warrant for Netanyahu over Gaza war crimes allegations.·2024-11-05APDonald Trump wins second term; Republicans take both chambers of Congress.·2024-09-27ReutersIsraeli airstrike kills Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut.·2024-09-17ReutersCoordinated pager attacks in Lebanon kill dozens and wound thousands attributed to Hezbollah.·
2024-08-24FTPavel Durov arrested in France; Telegram free-speech and crime debate erupts.·2024-08-04ReutersOpenAI o1 'reasoning' model debuts; cost of intelligent compute keeps falling.·2024-07-13ReutersTrump shot at Pennsylvania rally; survives.·2024-05-30ReutersDonald Trump becomes first US former president convicted of a felony.·2024-04-13BBCIran launches its first-ever direct strike on Israel: 300+ missiles and drones.·2024-02-16ReutersAlexei Navalny dies in Russian Arctic penal colony.·2024-01-26APICJ orders Israel to prevent genocidal acts in Gaza; genocide case proceeds.·2024-01-09ReutersHouthi attacks on Red Sea shipping force major carriers to reroute around Africa.·2023-12-12ReutersCOP28 ends with first-ever call for the world to 'transition away from fossil fuels.'·2023-11-15UN OCHAGaza death toll passes 11,000; UN warns of famine and collapse of medical system.·2023-10-07ReutersHamas attacks southern Israel; 1,195 killed and 251 hostages taken.·2023-09-08CopernicusEarth surpasses 1.5°C above pre-industrial averaged over 12 months for the first time.·2023-08-23ReutersYevgeny Prigozhin killed in a plane crash north of Moscow.·2023-08-08APMaui wildfires destroy historic Lahaina and kill at least 100.·2023-06-23FTWagner Group mutiny; Prigozhin's column marches on Moscow, then turns back.·2023-05-05WHOWHO declares the end of the COVID-19 global health emergency.·2023-03-22WMOAtmospheric CO₂ breaks 420 ppm for the first time in 4 million years.·2023-02-06ReutersEarthquake in Türkiye and Syria kills more than 59,000.·2022-11-30ReutersOpenAI launches ChatGPT to the public; mass-market generative AI begins.·2022-10-27ReutersElon Musk completes Twitter takeover; mass layoffs and policy reversals follow.·2024-08-24FTPavel Durov arrested in France; Telegram free-speech and crime debate erupts.·2024-08-04ReutersOpenAI o1 'reasoning' model debuts; cost of intelligent compute keeps falling.·2024-07-13ReutersTrump shot at Pennsylvania rally; survives.·2024-05-30ReutersDonald Trump becomes first US former president convicted of a felony.·2024-04-13BBCIran launches its first-ever direct strike on Israel: 300+ missiles and drones.·2024-02-16ReutersAlexei Navalny dies in Russian Arctic penal colony.·2024-01-26APICJ orders Israel to prevent genocidal acts in Gaza; genocide case proceeds.·2024-01-09ReutersHouthi attacks on Red Sea shipping force major carriers to reroute around Africa.·2023-12-12ReutersCOP28 ends with first-ever call for the world to 'transition away from fossil fuels.'·2023-11-15UN OCHAGaza death toll passes 11,000; UN warns of famine and collapse of medical system.·2023-10-07ReutersHamas attacks southern Israel; 1,195 killed and 251 hostages taken.·2023-09-08CopernicusEarth surpasses 1.5°C above pre-industrial averaged over 12 months for the first time.·2023-08-23ReutersYevgeny Prigozhin killed in a plane crash north of Moscow.·2023-08-08APMaui wildfires destroy historic Lahaina and kill at least 100.·2023-06-23FTWagner Group mutiny; Prigozhin's column marches on Moscow, then turns back.·2023-05-05WHOWHO declares the end of the COVID-19 global health emergency.·2023-03-22WMOAtmospheric CO₂ breaks 420 ppm for the first time in 4 million years.·2023-02-06ReutersEarthquake in Türkiye and Syria kills more than 59,000.·2022-11-30ReutersOpenAI launches ChatGPT to the public; mass-market generative AI begins.·2022-10-27ReutersElon Musk completes Twitter takeover; mass layoffs and policy reversals follow.·
2026-05-20Carbon Brief12-month global temperature anomaly stays above 1.55°C for the third consecutive year.·2026-02-05FASNew START Treaty officially expires with no successor agreement; nuclear-arms-control architecture collapses.·2025-12-04ReutersEuropean far-right gains in multiple national elections; centrist coalitions struggle to form.·2025-11-12ReutersWhite-collar AI layoffs accelerate across legal, marketing, and customer-support sectors.·2025-10-30WHOWHO: adolescent mental-health diagnoses up sharply versus pre-pandemic baseline.·2025-09-15LancetLancet study: indirect death toll from Gaza war likely exceeds 186,000.·2025-07-22CopernicusEurope shatters multiple national heat records in July heatwave; 50°C hit in parts of the south.·2025-06-22CNNUS bombs Iranian nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan during '12-day war.'·2025-06-13ReutersIsrael launches large-scale strikes on Iranian nuclear and command targets.·2025-04-30BBCIndia and Pakistan exchange strikes after Pahalgam attack in Kashmir.·2025-04-02ReutersTrump announces sweeping 'reciprocal' tariffs; global markets sell off hard.·2025-02-06ReutersTrump pauses most USAID funding; foreign-aid programs and partners scramble.·2025-01-20ReutersTrump returns to the White House; day-one executive orders on tariffs, deportations, climate, and TikTok.·2024-12-08ReutersBashar al-Assad regime falls in Syria after 53 years; rebels enter Damascus.·2024-11-21Al JazeeraICC issues arrest warrant for Netanyahu over Gaza war crimes allegations.·2024-11-05APDonald Trump wins second term; Republicans take both chambers of Congress.·2024-09-27ReutersIsraeli airstrike kills Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut.·2024-09-17ReutersCoordinated pager attacks in Lebanon kill dozens and wound thousands attributed to Hezbollah.·2024-08-24FTPavel Durov arrested in France; Telegram free-speech and crime debate erupts.·2024-08-04ReutersOpenAI o1 'reasoning' model debuts; cost of intelligent compute keeps falling.·2024-07-13ReutersTrump shot at Pennsylvania rally; survives.·2024-05-30ReutersDonald Trump becomes first US former president convicted of a felony.·2024-04-13BBCIran launches its first-ever direct strike on Israel: 300+ missiles and drones.·2024-02-16ReutersAlexei Navalny dies in Russian Arctic penal colony.·2024-01-26APICJ orders Israel to prevent genocidal acts in Gaza; genocide case proceeds.·2024-01-09ReutersHouthi attacks on Red Sea shipping force major carriers to reroute around Africa.·2023-12-12ReutersCOP28 ends with first-ever call for the world to 'transition away from fossil fuels.'·2023-11-15UN OCHAGaza death toll passes 11,000; UN warns of famine and collapse of medical system.·2023-10-07ReutersHamas attacks southern Israel; 1,195 killed and 251 hostages taken.·2023-09-08CopernicusEarth surpasses 1.5°C above pre-industrial averaged over 12 months for the first time.·2023-08-23ReutersYevgeny Prigozhin killed in a plane crash north of Moscow.·2023-08-08APMaui wildfires destroy historic Lahaina and kill at least 100.·2023-06-23FTWagner Group mutiny; Prigozhin's column marches on Moscow, then turns back.·2023-05-05WHOWHO declares the end of the COVID-19 global health emergency.·2023-03-22WMOAtmospheric CO₂ breaks 420 ppm for the first time in 4 million years.·2023-02-06ReutersEarthquake in Türkiye and Syria kills more than 59,000.·2022-11-30ReutersOpenAI launches ChatGPT to the public; mass-market generative AI begins.·2022-10-27ReutersElon Musk completes Twitter takeover; mass layoffs and policy reversals follow.·2022-09-16GuardianMahsa Amini dies in Iranian custody; women-led protests sweep the country.·2022-09-08BBCQueen Elizabeth II dies after 70 years on the throne.·2022-08-31ReutersPakistan floods displace 33 million; a third of the country underwater.·2022-06-24NYTUS Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade, ending the constitutional right to abortion.·2022-05-24NYTGunman kills 19 children and 2 teachers at Robb Elementary in Uvalde, Texas.·2022-03-09APRussian shelling of a Mariupol maternity hospital draws global condemnation.·2022-02-24BBCRussia launches full-scale invasion of Ukraine; largest land war in Europe since 1945.·2021-11-30NatureOmicron variant detected in southern Africa; spreads globally within weeks.·2021-10-31Carbon BriefIPCC: world on a 2.7°C warming track even if every Paris pledge is met.·2021-08-15ReutersTaliban enter Kabul; Afghan government collapses within hours of US withdrawal.·2021-07-09BBCWestern Canada heat dome kills 600 in days; Lytton burns to the ground.·2021-07-01BBCHong Kong's Apple Daily forced to shut as Beijing tightens national-security law.·2021-03-23FTContainer ship Ever Given blocks the Suez Canal for six days, halting global trade.·2021-02-15Texas TribuneTexas power grid collapses in winter storm; hundreds die in their homes.·2021-01-06ReutersPro-Trump mob storms the US Capitol to block certification of the election; five dead.·2020-12-31WHOGlobal COVID-19 deaths pass 1.8 million in the pandemic's first year.·2020-11-07APBiden defeats Trump; Trump refuses to concede the election.·2020-09-09SF ChronicleCalifornia wildfire smoke turns the San Francisco sky a dystopian orange.·2020-08-04Al JazeeraBeirut port explosion kills more than 200 and flattens half the city.·2020-05-25NYTGeorge Floyd killed by Minneapolis police; protests sweep cities worldwide.·2020-03-11BBCWHO declares COVID-19 a pandemic; global lockdowns begin.·2020-01-30ReutersWHO declares novel coronavirus a global health emergency.·2026-05-20Carbon Brief12-month global temperature anomaly stays above 1.55°C for the third consecutive year.·2026-02-05FASNew START Treaty officially expires with no successor agreement; nuclear-arms-control architecture collapses.·2025-12-04ReutersEuropean far-right gains in multiple national elections; centrist coalitions struggle to form.·2025-11-12ReutersWhite-collar AI layoffs accelerate across legal, marketing, and customer-support sectors.·2025-10-30WHOWHO: adolescent mental-health diagnoses up sharply versus pre-pandemic baseline.·2025-09-15LancetLancet study: indirect death toll from Gaza war likely exceeds 186,000.·2025-07-22CopernicusEurope shatters multiple national heat records in July heatwave; 50°C hit in parts of the south.·2025-06-22CNNUS bombs Iranian nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan during '12-day war.'·2025-06-13ReutersIsrael launches large-scale strikes on Iranian nuclear and command targets.·2025-04-30BBCIndia and Pakistan exchange strikes after Pahalgam attack in Kashmir.·2025-04-02ReutersTrump announces sweeping 'reciprocal' tariffs; global markets sell off hard.·2025-02-06ReutersTrump pauses most USAID funding; foreign-aid programs and partners scramble.·2025-01-20ReutersTrump returns to the White House; day-one executive orders on tariffs, deportations, climate, and TikTok.·2024-12-08ReutersBashar al-Assad regime falls in Syria after 53 years; rebels enter Damascus.·2024-11-21Al JazeeraICC issues arrest warrant for Netanyahu over Gaza war crimes allegations.·2024-11-05APDonald Trump wins second term; Republicans take both chambers of Congress.·2024-09-27ReutersIsraeli airstrike kills Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut.·2024-09-17ReutersCoordinated pager attacks in Lebanon kill dozens and wound thousands attributed to Hezbollah.·2024-08-24FTPavel Durov arrested in France; Telegram free-speech and crime debate erupts.·2024-08-04ReutersOpenAI o1 'reasoning' model debuts; cost of intelligent compute keeps falling.·2024-07-13ReutersTrump shot at Pennsylvania rally; survives.·2024-05-30ReutersDonald Trump becomes first US former president convicted of a felony.·2024-04-13BBCIran launches its first-ever direct strike on Israel: 300+ missiles and drones.·2024-02-16ReutersAlexei Navalny dies in Russian Arctic penal colony.·2024-01-26APICJ orders Israel to prevent genocidal acts in Gaza; genocide case proceeds.·2024-01-09ReutersHouthi attacks on Red Sea shipping force major carriers to reroute around Africa.·2023-12-12ReutersCOP28 ends with first-ever call for the world to 'transition away from fossil fuels.'·2023-11-15UN OCHAGaza death toll passes 11,000; UN warns of famine and collapse of medical system.·2023-10-07ReutersHamas attacks southern Israel; 1,195 killed and 251 hostages taken.·2023-09-08CopernicusEarth surpasses 1.5°C above pre-industrial averaged over 12 months for the first time.·2023-08-23ReutersYevgeny Prigozhin killed in a plane crash north of Moscow.·2023-08-08APMaui wildfires destroy historic Lahaina and kill at least 100.·2023-06-23FTWagner Group mutiny; Prigozhin's column marches on Moscow, then turns back.·2023-05-05WHOWHO declares the end of the COVID-19 global health emergency.·2023-03-22WMOAtmospheric CO₂ breaks 420 ppm for the first time in 4 million years.·2023-02-06ReutersEarthquake in Türkiye and Syria kills more than 59,000.·2022-11-30ReutersOpenAI launches ChatGPT to the public; mass-market generative AI begins.·2022-10-27ReutersElon Musk completes Twitter takeover; mass layoffs and policy reversals follow.·2022-09-16GuardianMahsa Amini dies in Iranian custody; women-led protests sweep the country.·2022-09-08BBCQueen Elizabeth II dies after 70 years on the throne.·2022-08-31ReutersPakistan floods displace 33 million; a third of the country underwater.·2022-06-24NYTUS Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade, ending the constitutional right to abortion.·2022-05-24NYTGunman kills 19 children and 2 teachers at Robb Elementary in Uvalde, Texas.·2022-03-09APRussian shelling of a Mariupol maternity hospital draws global condemnation.·2022-02-24BBCRussia launches full-scale invasion of Ukraine; largest land war in Europe since 1945.·2021-11-30NatureOmicron variant detected in southern Africa; spreads globally within weeks.·2021-10-31Carbon BriefIPCC: world on a 2.7°C warming track even if every Paris pledge is met.·2021-08-15ReutersTaliban enter Kabul; Afghan government collapses within hours of US withdrawal.·2021-07-09BBCWestern Canada heat dome kills 600 in days; Lytton burns to the ground.·2021-07-01BBCHong Kong's Apple Daily forced to shut as Beijing tightens national-security law.·2021-03-23FTContainer ship Ever Given blocks the Suez Canal for six days, halting global trade.·2021-02-15Texas TribuneTexas power grid collapses in winter storm; hundreds die in their homes.·2021-01-06ReutersPro-Trump mob storms the US Capitol to block certification of the election; five dead.·2020-12-31WHOGlobal COVID-19 deaths pass 1.8 million in the pandemic's first year.·2020-11-07APBiden defeats Trump; Trump refuses to concede the election.·2020-09-09SF ChronicleCalifornia wildfire smoke turns the San Francisco sky a dystopian orange.·2020-08-04Al JazeeraBeirut port explosion kills more than 200 and flattens half the city.·2020-05-25NYTGeorge Floyd killed by Minneapolis police; protests sweep cities worldwide.·2020-03-11BBCWHO declares COVID-19 a pandemic; global lockdowns begin.·2020-01-30ReutersWHO declares novel coronavirus a global health emergency.·
DYING·HUMANITY / PILLAR / POLARISATION & OPINION

WE HAVE STOPPED DISAGREEING.
WE NOW DISLIKE EACH OTHER.

US affective-polarisation thermometer gaps have more than doubled since 1980. Only 27% of US adults say they have a close friend who supports the other major party, down from 56% in 2008. 13% of US adults say political violence is at least sometimes justified, up from 4% in 2017. V-Dem reports 35 countries on a measurable downgrade trajectory toward electoral autocracy. The pattern is global, but the mechanisms are local.

T −9years·182days·15hrs:00min:00sec
SEVERE· COMPOSITE 81/100
THE NUMBERS

Six figures behind the composite.

50
pts
US affective-polarisation gap, 2024
ANES feeling-thermometer difference between own party and other party. Highest level since the series began in 1978.
13
%
US adults: political violence sometimes justified
UC Davis 2024. Was 4% in 2017. The trajectory matters more than the level.
27
%
US adults with a close friend across the partisan divide
Pew Research 2024. Was 56% in 2008. Politically endogamous marriages now ~85%.
70
M
Americans living in a news desert
Medill 2024. Counties with zero or one local outlet. 130+ counties have no full-time local journalist.
35
Countries on V-Dem electoral-autocracy downgrade trajectory
V-Dem Democracy Report 2025. Global liberal-democracy level has reverted to 1989.
58
%
Under-35s getting most news via social-media feeds
Reuters Digital News Report 2024. Mozilla TikTok audits show recommendation-driven exposure dominated by a small top-account set.
COMPOSITE

One 0-100 score.

025456582100
81
Composite Index
Severe
CURRENT READING

Heuristic seed snapshot. Polarisation stress sits in the upper end of the 'Severe' band. Affective polarisation in the US is at the highest level recorded; cross-partisan friendship rates have fallen by half over two decades. Institutional distrust is high almost everywhere in the OECD. The share of US adults who say political violence is at least sometimes justified has tripled since 2017. Local news has collapsed: ~70 million Americans now live in a county with one or zero local outlets. V-Dem reports more countries trending toward electoral autocracy than at any point since the 1970s.

Severe· composite 81/100
TRAJECTORY

Over time.

FOUR INDICATORS, ONE STORY

Affective polarisation, violence acceptance, trust, V-Dem democracies.

1968197719871996200520152024Affective polaViolence accepDistrust in goAuthoritarian 0-100 PER-SERIES NORMALISED
  • Affective polarisation (US, pts)23 → 50 since 1980
  • Violence acceptance (US, %)4% → 13% since 2017
  • Distrust in government (US, %)Inverted: rising = bad
  • Authoritarian drift (50 - lib dems)Inverted: rising = bad
SOURCE · ANES; UC Davis VPRP; Gallup; V-Dem Democracy Report
DISTRUST ATLAS · US ADULTS

Institutions Americans no longer trust, ranked from least to most.

Gallup & Pew composite of the share of adults saying they have 'a great deal' or 'quite a lot' of confidence in each institution. Congress and TV news sit below 20%, and have for over a decade.

  • Congress
    8%
  • Television news
    14%
  • Big business
    16%
  • Newspapers
    18%
  • The Supreme Court
    25%
  • Public schools
    26%
  • Banks
    26%
  • Organised religion
    32%
  • The medical system
    36%
  • Police
    43%
  • The military
    60%
  • Small business
    65%
SOURCE · Gallup Confidence in Institutions; Pew Research
AFFECTIVE POLARISATION BY COUNTRY

Fourteen democracies, the same disease.

Feeling-thermometer gap (own party minus opposing party) on ANES-equivalent national surveys. US, Brazil, and Türkiye lead the magnitude.

SORT
  • 🇺🇸United StatesAmericas
    50 pts
  • 🇧🇷BrazilAmericas
    47 pts
  • 🇹🇷TurkeyMENA
    46 pts
  • 🇭🇺HungaryEurope
    43 pts
  • 🇵🇱PolandEurope
    40 pts
  • 🇮🇳IndiaAsia
    38 pts
  • 🇫🇷FranceEurope
    37 pts
  • 🇮🇹ItalyEurope
    36 pts
  • 🇬🇧United KingdomEurope
    34 pts
  • 🇨🇦CanadaAmericas
    30 pts
  • 🇩🇪GermanyEurope
    28 pts
  • 🇦🇺AustraliaOceania
    28 pts
  • 🇸🇪SwedenEurope
    26 pts
  • 🇯🇵JapanAsia
    22 pts
OECD median = 28 pts
READINGUnited States stands out as the highest at 50 pts. ANES feeling-thermometer gap, 2024. Highest in the series.
SOURCE · ANES (US); CSES Module 5; Pew Research
SIGNALS

What the score is measuring.

Affective polarisation
Gap between warm feelings toward one's own political camp and cold feelings toward the other, on a 0-100 thermometer.
weight 13% · sources: ANES (US), CSES Module 5 cross-national survey
US ANES feeling-thermometer gap between own party and opposing party: ~50 points, highest since the series began in 1978. EU CSES averages lower but rising in France, Italy, Hungary, Sweden.
cit: ANES 2024 · CSES Module 5
9.0
Cross-partisan personal contact
Share of adults reporting close friends, family or romantic partners across the partisan divide.
weight 10% · sources: Pew Research American Trends Panel, More in Common
Pew 2024: only 27% of US adults say they have a close friend who supports the other major party (down from 56% in 2008). 'Politically endogamous' marriages now ~85% in US.
cit: Pew ATP · More in Common
8.0
Institutional distrust
Distrust of major civic institutions (legislature, judiciary, science, media) on a 0-10 scale.
weight 11% · sources: Edelman Trust Barometer, Eurobarometer, Gallup
Edelman Trust Barometer 2024: median 51% trust in government across OECD, with majorities expressing low trust in courts, legislatures, and media. Eurobarometer: only 33% of EU citizens trust national governments.
cit: Edelman 2024 · Eurobarometer 2024
8.0
Algorithmic content concentration
Share of citizens whose news diet is dominated by feed-driven, algorithmically-ranked sources.
weight 10% · sources: Reuters Digital News Report, Mozilla TikTok Reporter auditsLLM-assisted
Reuters Digital News Report 2024: 58% of under-35s globally now get most news via social-media feeds. Mozilla TikTok audits show recommendation-driven exposure dominated by a small top-account set.
cit: Reuters DNR 2024 · Mozilla Foundation
8.0
Acceptance of political violence
Share of adults who say political violence to advance their side's goals is at least sometimes justified.
weight 11% · sources: UC Davis Violence Prevention Research Program, PRRI, Bright Line Watch
UC Davis Violence Prevention 2024: 13% of US adults say political violence is at least sometimes justified to advance goals (up from 4% in 2017). Bright Line Watch: similar pattern in expert surveys.
cit: UC Davis VPRP 2024 · PRRI · Bright Line Watch
8.0
Local-news desert expansion
Share of counties / districts without a single full-time local news outlet.
weight 8% · sources: Medill Local News Initiative, European Federation of Journalists
Medill 2024: ~70M Americans live in a news desert (county with 0 or 1 outlet). 130+ counties have no full-time local journalist. Pattern echoed in EU regional press.
cit: Medill Local News Initiative 2024
8.0
Conspiracy belief prevalence
Share of adults endorsing at least one major conspiracy theory inconsistent with public evidence.
weight 8% · sources: Cambridge Conspiracy Mentality scale, YouGov, Eurobarometer
YouGov 2024: ~30% of US adults believe a major election-fraud conspiracy theory; ~25% endorse a vaccine-microchip claim. Eurobarometer: similar magnitudes in France, Italy.
cit: YouGov 2024 · Eurobarometer 2023
7.0
Electoral-autocracy drift
Number of democracies on V-Dem's downgrade trajectory toward electoral autocracy.
weight 9% · sources: V-Dem Institute Democracy Report
V-Dem Democracy Report 2025: 35 countries on a measurable downgrade trajectory toward electoral autocracy; level of liberal democracy globally has reverted to ~1989 levels.
cit: V-Dem 2025
8.0
Legislative-elite polarisation
Distance between median legislators of major parties on roll-call / scaled-vote dimensions.
weight 8% · sources: VoteView DW-NOMINATE, Manifesto Project
VoteView: US Congressional DW-NOMINATE polarisation at highest level since the 1890s. Comparative Manifesto Project shows widening major-party programmatic distance in France, UK, Italy.
cit: VoteView 2024 · Manifesto Project
9.0
Civil-discourse quality
Composite of online-toxicity rates, ad-hominem prevalence in political ads, dehumanising rhetoric incidents.
weight 12% · sources: Jigsaw Perspective API audits, AAUI, Pew ResearchLLM-assisted
Jigsaw Perspective audits + Pew: rising toxicity scores on political posts; majority of campaign ads now use dehumanising framing of opponents.
cit: Jigsaw Perspective · Pew Research
8.0
PERSPECTIVES

Several traditions reading the same data.

On the question of

Why has politics in many democracies become this hostile this fast?

Cause & diagnosis
Western scientific
Media-systems analysis

Algorithmic feeds + the collapse of local news + cable-news outrage cycles produced a media environment where engagement = anger. The platforms didn't invent partisan hostility; they industrialised it. The political effects are downstream of an attention-economy business model that was never aligned with civic life.

The first amendment defends against censorship. It does not defend against algorithmic amplification.

Yochai Benkler, Network Propaganda; Reuters Digital News Report
Western scientific
Sorting / Lilliana Mason

Over decades, political identity in the US (and increasingly Europe) has aligned with racial, religious, urban-rural, and educational identities. The result: any political loss now feels like an identity loss, and out-party hostility looks like in-group defence rather than disagreement.

Lilliana Mason, Uncivil Agreement (2018); Pew political typology
Critical
Elite-driven polarisation

Political elites polarised first; voters followed. Donor classes, primary electorates, and ideological media gatekeepers reward purity and punish compromise. Civility norms eroded at the top before they eroded at the bottom; the fix has to start there too.

Hacker & Pierson, Off-Center; Sarah Binder Congressional Research
Global South
Economic-grievance / Piketty-Saez

Decades of stagnant working-class real incomes + visible elite enrichment create a baseline of resentment. Demagogic politics is a predictable response, not a deviation. Until the material conditions change, asking citizens to be more civil to each other will fail.

Piketty, A Brief History of Equality (2022); Mark Blyth, Angrynomics
Religious
Religious / community-decline thesis

Where shared religious life, fraternal orders, and civic clubs have collapsed, political identity rushed in to fill the meaning vacuum. The hyperpoliticisation we see is partly the cost of a society that ran short of binding institutions older than the partisan divide.

Robert Putnam, Bowling Alone & The Upswing; Tim Carney, Alienated America
Global South
Cross-cultural / not-only-the-West

Polarisation looks different in India (Hindutva vs minorities), Brazil (post-Lula urban-rural), the Philippines (drug-war moral panic), Hungary (illiberal nationalism), and Turkey (Erdoğan personalism). The pattern is global but the local mechanisms are distinct. Diagnoses imported from US-centric frameworks travel badly.

V-Dem regional reports; Tom Pepinsky comparative work
On the question of

Of the interventions, which actually reduce hostility?

What helps
Western scientific
Contact hypothesis (refreshed)

Structured cross-partisan deliberation reliably reduces out-group hostility in randomised trials. Deliberative Polling, America in One Room, Hidden Common Ground. Effects are real and persistent at small scale; scaling them politically is the unsolved problem.

James Fishkin, Deliberative Democracy Lab; Hidden Common Ground
Critical
Platform redesign

Many of the harms are downstream of design choices. Algorithm transparency, chronological-feed defaults, friction on virality, bans on rage-engagement micro-targeting. The EU Digital Services Act is the first major attempt to enforce some of this; the early evidence is mixed but the precedent matters.

EU Digital Services Act; Center for Humane Technology
Critical
Local-news revival

Counties that lose their local newspaper see measurable spikes in straight-ticket voting and polarisation within a few years. Subsidising / endowing local journalism is one of the highest-leverage civic interventions there is, both upstream of polarisation and downstream of accountability.

Medill Local News Initiative; Penny Abernathy
Critical
Electoral & institutional reform

Ranked-choice voting, jungle primaries, independent redistricting, multi-member districts. Each shifts the median-voter calculus toward broad coalitions and away from primary-purity extremism. The mechanism design literature is far ahead of the political will.

FairVote; Lee Drutman, Breaking the Two-Party Doom Loop
Religious
Religious & civic associational revival

Most measured ways to lower out-group hostility involve being in regular non-political contact with people unlike you. Churches, mosques, temples, sports leagues, parent-teacher organisations, neighbourhood councils. Re-building these is slow but it is the durable answer.

Putnam, The Upswing; Yuval Levin, A Time to Build
CROSS-PILLAR CORRELATIONS

What moves with polarisation, country by country.

INEQUALITY × POLARISATION

Wealth at the top, hostility everywhere.

The relationship is real but not deterministic. Sweden and Japan show that high inequality does not always produce hostile politics, but they are the exceptions. Where inequality compounds with elite-driven sorting (US, Brazil, Hungary), the gap is steepest.

16%25%34%43%52%19 pts28 pts36 pts44 pts53 ptsTOP-1% SHARE OF HOUSEHOLD WEALTHAFFECTIVE-POLARISATION THERMOMETER GAPUnited StatesBrazilTürkiyeHungaryIndiaPolandFranceItalyUnited KingdomCanadaGermanyAustraliaSwedenJapan
READINGTrend line shows a moderate positive correlation (r² = 0.44).
SOURCE · X: World Inequality Database 2024 · Y: ANES / CSES Module 5
ALGORITHMIC FEEDS × POLARISATION

Where the feeds reach more citizens, the hostility runs hotter.

The platform-engagement business model and affective polarisation track together across democracies. Where algorithmic feed exposure is highest, hostility runs highest. Northern Europe, where public-broadcaster news consumption remains strong, sits at the lower-left corner.

17%32%47%61%76%19 pts28 pts36 pts44 pts53 ptsSHARE OF CITIZENS GETTING MOST NEWS VIA ALGORITHMIC SOCIAL FEEDSAFFECTIVE-POLARISATION THERMOMETER GAPBrazilUnited StatesTürkiyeIndiaHungaryItalyFranceUnited KingdomCanadaAustraliaGermanySwedenNetherlandsJapan
READINGTrend line shows a strong positive correlation (r² = 0.83).
SOURCE · X: Reuters Digital News Report 2024 · Y: ANES / CSES Module 5
CASCADE

How polarisation becomes democratic backsliding.

CASCADE · HOW IT ESCALATES

Six steps from disagreement to democratic backsliding.

The path is not deterministic. Democracies stall and reverse at every step. But each one is a documented escalation observable in current data. Where a country sits on this ladder predicts where it can land next.

  1. 1

    Identity sorting

    Political identity comes to align with race, religion, urban-rural, education. Disagreement starts to feel like an attack on identity rather than policy.

    2
  2. 2

    Affective polarisation

    Out-party hostility rises faster than in-party loyalty. The gap is the key variable; in the US it has more than doubled since 1980.

    3
  3. 3

    Trust collapse

    Institutional trust falls, especially in cross-partisan institutions like media, courts, and Congress. By 2024 only 8% of US adults trust Congress; 14% trust TV news.

    4
  4. 4

    Information sorting

    Algorithmic feeds + local-news collapse mean citizens increasingly see different facts. 70M Americans live in a news desert; 58% of under-35s globally get news mostly via social feeds.

    5
  5. 5

    Norm erosion

    Acceptance of political violence triples (4% → 13% in the US since 2017). Electoral-loss legitimacy declines. Elite polarisation at all-time post-1890s highs in Congress.

    6
  6. 6

    Democratic backsliding

    V-Dem reports 35 countries on measurable downgrade trajectory. The number of liberal democracies globally is back to its 1989 level.

The cascade can be read in reverse: every working intervention against backsliding (electoral reform, local journalism, deliberation, institutional repair) targets one of these steps.

TRUST

Sources, weights, and code are open.

Data provenance

Where every number comes from

The composite index is computed from the signals listed on this page, each backed by one or more named sources. Where the source publishes a public dataset or feed it is linked below; where a signal involves qualitative judgement, the LLM-assisted pass is explicitly marked on the signal card.

  • ·AAUI
  • ·ANES (US)
  • ·Bright Line Watch
  • ·CSES Module 5 cross-national survey
  • ·Cambridge Conspiracy Mentality scale
  • ·Edelman Trust Barometer
  • ·Eurobarometer
  • ·European Federation of Journalists
  • ·Gallup
  • ·Jigsaw Perspective API audits
  • ·Manifesto Project
  • ·Medill Local News Initiative
  • ·More in Common
  • ·Mozilla TikTok Reporter audits
  • ·PRRI
  • ·Pew Research
  • ·Pew Research American Trends Panel
  • ·Reuters Digital News Report
  • ·UC Davis Violence Prevention Research Program
  • ·V-Dem Institute Democracy Report
  • ·VoteView DW-NOMINATE
  • ·YouGov
Audit trail

Everything is versioned

  • Every hourly snapshot is committed to git with a message naming the signals that moved.
  • A daily snapshot is archived to data/history-current/ for the calibration log.
  • Raw scraped article lists are written to data/raw/ so a score is reproducible from its input bundle.
  • Signal definitions, weights, and seeded scores all live in plain JSON or TypeScript; anyone can open a PR challenging a value and explain why.
What this is NOT
Not a prediction.
The composite index is descriptive. Subjective estimates are published openly so the track record becomes visible, not because the author believes them precisely calibrated today.
Not journalism.
Sources are listed but this is not original reporting. If the inputs feeding the LLM are wrong, the score is wrong. Triangulate with primary reporting before drawing conclusions.
Not impartial.
Signal definitions, weights, and historical scores reflect the author's reading. Bias is unavoidable in this kind of synthesis; the mitigation is that it's all explicit and challengeable signal by signal.
METHODOLOGY

How this pillar is scored.

Methodology & limits

Ten signals, weighted into a 0-100 score. Structural measures (V-Dem trajectories, local-news deserts) and behavioural measures (violence acceptance, civil-discourse quality) sit alongside each other. The US shows up heavily because that's where the longitudinal data is densest; cross-national charts are labelled.

Affective polarisation carries a big weight because it predicts most of the rest. Once out-party hostility crosses a threshold, norms get harder to defend and reform gets harder to pass. The mechanism is how partisans see each other, not what they disagree about on policy.

Two adjacent pillars are coupled to this one in the data, not just in the framing: tech & attention (the platforms that reward affective intensity) and isolation (community decline removes the cross-cutting ties that used to absorb partisan heat).

Affective polarisation
w 13%
Gap between warm feelings toward one's own political camp and cold feelings toward the other, on a 0-100 thermometer.
sources: ANES (US), CSES Module 5 cross-national survey
Cross-partisan personal contact
w 10%
Share of adults reporting close friends, family or romantic partners across the partisan divide.
sources: Pew Research American Trends Panel, More in Common
Institutional distrust
w 11%
Distrust of major civic institutions (legislature, judiciary, science, media) on a 0-10 scale.
sources: Edelman Trust Barometer, Eurobarometer, Gallup
Algorithmic content concentration
w 10%
Share of citizens whose news diet is dominated by feed-driven, algorithmically-ranked sources.
sources: Reuters Digital News Report, Mozilla TikTok Reporter audits · LLM-assisted
Acceptance of political violence
w 11%
Share of adults who say political violence to advance their side's goals is at least sometimes justified.
sources: UC Davis Violence Prevention Research Program, PRRI, Bright Line Watch
Local-news desert expansion
w 8%
Share of counties / districts without a single full-time local news outlet.
sources: Medill Local News Initiative, European Federation of Journalists
Conspiracy belief prevalence
w 8%
Share of adults endorsing at least one major conspiracy theory inconsistent with public evidence.
sources: Cambridge Conspiracy Mentality scale, YouGov, Eurobarometer
Electoral-autocracy drift
w 9%
Number of democracies on V-Dem's downgrade trajectory toward electoral autocracy.
sources: V-Dem Institute Democracy Report
Legislative-elite polarisation
w 8%
Distance between median legislators of major parties on roll-call / scaled-vote dimensions.
sources: VoteView DW-NOMINATE, Manifesto Project
Civil-discourse quality
w 12%
Composite of online-toxicity rates, ad-hominem prevalence in political ads, dehumanising rhetoric incidents.
sources: Jigsaw Perspective API audits, AAUI, Pew Research · LLM-assisted
CROSS-REFERENCES · KEEP READING