WE HAVE STOPPED DISAGREEING.
WE NOW DISLIKE EACH OTHER.
US affective-polarisation thermometer gaps have more than doubled since 1980. Only 27% of US adults say they have a close friend who supports the other major party, down from 56% in 2008. 13% of US adults say political violence is at least sometimes justified, up from 4% in 2017. V-Dem reports 35 countries on a measurable downgrade trajectory toward electoral autocracy. The pattern is global, but the mechanisms are local.
Six figures behind the composite.
One 0-100 score.
Heuristic seed snapshot. Polarisation stress sits in the upper end of the 'Severe' band. Affective polarisation in the US is at the highest level recorded; cross-partisan friendship rates have fallen by half over two decades. Institutional distrust is high almost everywhere in the OECD. The share of US adults who say political violence is at least sometimes justified has tripled since 2017. Local news has collapsed: ~70 million Americans now live in a county with one or zero local outlets. V-Dem reports more countries trending toward electoral autocracy than at any point since the 1970s.
Over time.
Affective polarisation, violence acceptance, trust, V-Dem democracies.
- Affective polarisation (US, pts)23 → 50 since 1980
- Violence acceptance (US, %)4% → 13% since 2017
- Distrust in government (US, %)Inverted: rising = bad
- Authoritarian drift (50 - lib dems)Inverted: rising = bad
Institutions Americans no longer trust, ranked from least to most.
Gallup & Pew composite of the share of adults saying they have 'a great deal' or 'quite a lot' of confidence in each institution. Congress and TV news sit below 20%, and have for over a decade.
- Congress8%
- Television news14%
- Big business16%
- Newspapers18%
- The Supreme Court25%
- Public schools26%
- Banks26%
- Organised religion32%
- The medical system36%
- Police43%
- The military60%
- Small business65%
Fourteen democracies, the same disease.
Feeling-thermometer gap (own party minus opposing party) on ANES-equivalent national surveys. US, Brazil, and Türkiye lead the magnitude.
- 🇺🇸United StatesAmericas50 pts
- 🇧🇷BrazilAmericas47 pts
- 🇹🇷TurkeyMENA46 pts
- 🇭🇺HungaryEurope43 pts
- 🇵🇱PolandEurope40 pts
- 🇮🇳IndiaAsia38 pts
- 🇫🇷FranceEurope37 pts
- 🇮🇹ItalyEurope36 pts
- 🇬🇧United KingdomEurope34 pts
- 🇨🇦CanadaAmericas30 pts
- 🇩🇪GermanyEurope28 pts
- 🇦🇺AustraliaOceania28 pts
- 🇸🇪SwedenEurope26 pts
- 🇯🇵JapanAsia22 pts
What the score is measuring.
Several traditions reading the same data.
Why has politics in many democracies become this hostile this fast?
Algorithmic feeds + the collapse of local news + cable-news outrage cycles produced a media environment where engagement = anger. The platforms didn't invent partisan hostility; they industrialised it. The political effects are downstream of an attention-economy business model that was never aligned with civic life.
“The first amendment defends against censorship. It does not defend against algorithmic amplification.”
Over decades, political identity in the US (and increasingly Europe) has aligned with racial, religious, urban-rural, and educational identities. The result: any political loss now feels like an identity loss, and out-party hostility looks like in-group defence rather than disagreement.
Political elites polarised first; voters followed. Donor classes, primary electorates, and ideological media gatekeepers reward purity and punish compromise. Civility norms eroded at the top before they eroded at the bottom; the fix has to start there too.
Decades of stagnant working-class real incomes + visible elite enrichment create a baseline of resentment. Demagogic politics is a predictable response, not a deviation. Until the material conditions change, asking citizens to be more civil to each other will fail.
Where shared religious life, fraternal orders, and civic clubs have collapsed, political identity rushed in to fill the meaning vacuum. The hyperpoliticisation we see is partly the cost of a society that ran short of binding institutions older than the partisan divide.
Polarisation looks different in India (Hindutva vs minorities), Brazil (post-Lula urban-rural), the Philippines (drug-war moral panic), Hungary (illiberal nationalism), and Turkey (Erdoğan personalism). The pattern is global but the local mechanisms are distinct. Diagnoses imported from US-centric frameworks travel badly.
Of the interventions, which actually reduce hostility?
Structured cross-partisan deliberation reliably reduces out-group hostility in randomised trials. Deliberative Polling, America in One Room, Hidden Common Ground. Effects are real and persistent at small scale; scaling them politically is the unsolved problem.
Many of the harms are downstream of design choices. Algorithm transparency, chronological-feed defaults, friction on virality, bans on rage-engagement micro-targeting. The EU Digital Services Act is the first major attempt to enforce some of this; the early evidence is mixed but the precedent matters.
Counties that lose their local newspaper see measurable spikes in straight-ticket voting and polarisation within a few years. Subsidising / endowing local journalism is one of the highest-leverage civic interventions there is, both upstream of polarisation and downstream of accountability.
Ranked-choice voting, jungle primaries, independent redistricting, multi-member districts. Each shifts the median-voter calculus toward broad coalitions and away from primary-purity extremism. The mechanism design literature is far ahead of the political will.
Most measured ways to lower out-group hostility involve being in regular non-political contact with people unlike you. Churches, mosques, temples, sports leagues, parent-teacher organisations, neighbourhood councils. Re-building these is slow but it is the durable answer.
What moves with polarisation, country by country.
Wealth at the top, hostility everywhere.
The relationship is real but not deterministic. Sweden and Japan show that high inequality does not always produce hostile politics, but they are the exceptions. Where inequality compounds with elite-driven sorting (US, Brazil, Hungary), the gap is steepest.
Where the feeds reach more citizens, the hostility runs hotter.
The platform-engagement business model and affective polarisation track together across democracies. Where algorithmic feed exposure is highest, hostility runs highest. Northern Europe, where public-broadcaster news consumption remains strong, sits at the lower-left corner.
How polarisation becomes democratic backsliding.
Six steps from disagreement to democratic backsliding.
The path is not deterministic. Democracies stall and reverse at every step. But each one is a documented escalation observable in current data. Where a country sits on this ladder predicts where it can land next.
- 1
Identity sorting
Political identity comes to align with race, religion, urban-rural, education. Disagreement starts to feel like an attack on identity rather than policy.
→ 2 - 2
Affective polarisation
Out-party hostility rises faster than in-party loyalty. The gap is the key variable; in the US it has more than doubled since 1980.
→ 3 - 3
Trust collapse
Institutional trust falls, especially in cross-partisan institutions like media, courts, and Congress. By 2024 only 8% of US adults trust Congress; 14% trust TV news.
→ 4 - 4
Information sorting
Algorithmic feeds + local-news collapse mean citizens increasingly see different facts. 70M Americans live in a news desert; 58% of under-35s globally get news mostly via social feeds.
→ 5 - 5
Norm erosion
Acceptance of political violence triples (4% → 13% in the US since 2017). Electoral-loss legitimacy declines. Elite polarisation at all-time post-1890s highs in Congress.
→ 6 - 6
Democratic backsliding
V-Dem reports 35 countries on measurable downgrade trajectory. The number of liberal democracies globally is back to its 1989 level.
The cascade can be read in reverse: every working intervention against backsliding (electoral reform, local journalism, deliberation, institutional repair) targets one of these steps.
Sources, weights, and code are open.
Where every number comes from
The composite index is computed from the signals listed on this page, each backed by one or more named sources. Where the source publishes a public dataset or feed it is linked below; where a signal involves qualitative judgement, the LLM-assisted pass is explicitly marked on the signal card.
- ·AAUI
- ·ANES (US)
- ·Bright Line Watch
- ·CSES Module 5 cross-national survey
- ·Cambridge Conspiracy Mentality scale
- ·Edelman Trust Barometer
- ·Eurobarometer
- ·European Federation of Journalists
- ·Gallup
- ·Jigsaw Perspective API audits
- ·Manifesto Project
- ·Medill Local News Initiative
- ·More in Common
- ·Mozilla TikTok Reporter audits
- ·PRRI
- ·Pew Research
- ·Pew Research American Trends Panel
- ·Reuters Digital News Report
- ·UC Davis Violence Prevention Research Program
- ·V-Dem Institute Democracy Report
- ·VoteView DW-NOMINATE
- ·YouGov
Everything is versioned
- → Every hourly snapshot is committed to git with a message naming the signals that moved.
- → A daily snapshot is archived to
data/history-current/for the calibration log. - → Raw scraped article lists are written to
data/raw/so a score is reproducible from its input bundle. - → Signal definitions, weights, and seeded scores all live in plain JSON or TypeScript; anyone can open a PR challenging a value and explain why.
How this pillar is scored.
Methodology & limits
Ten signals, weighted into a 0-100 score. Structural measures (V-Dem trajectories, local-news deserts) and behavioural measures (violence acceptance, civil-discourse quality) sit alongside each other. The US shows up heavily because that's where the longitudinal data is densest; cross-national charts are labelled.
Affective polarisation carries a big weight because it predicts most of the rest. Once out-party hostility crosses a threshold, norms get harder to defend and reform gets harder to pass. The mechanism is how partisans see each other, not what they disagree about on policy.
Two adjacent pillars are coupled to this one in the data, not just in the framing: tech & attention (the platforms that reward affective intensity) and isolation (community decline removes the cross-cutting ties that used to absorb partisan heat).