dying·humanity
EVIDENCE LIVE FEED
2026-05-20Carbon Brief12-month global temperature anomaly stays above 1.55°C for the third consecutive year.·2026-02-05FASNew START Treaty officially expires with no successor agreement; nuclear-arms-control architecture collapses.·2025-12-04ReutersEuropean far-right gains in multiple national elections; centrist coalitions struggle to form.·2025-11-12ReutersWhite-collar AI layoffs accelerate across legal, marketing, and customer-support sectors.·2025-10-30WHOWHO: adolescent mental-health diagnoses up sharply versus pre-pandemic baseline.·2025-09-15LancetLancet study: indirect death toll from Gaza war likely exceeds 186,000.·2025-07-22CopernicusEurope shatters multiple national heat records in July heatwave; 50°C hit in parts of the south.·2025-06-22CNNUS bombs Iranian nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan during '12-day war.'·2025-06-13ReutersIsrael launches large-scale strikes on Iranian nuclear and command targets.·2025-04-30BBCIndia and Pakistan exchange strikes after Pahalgam attack in Kashmir.·2025-04-02ReutersTrump announces sweeping 'reciprocal' tariffs; global markets sell off hard.·2025-02-06ReutersTrump pauses most USAID funding; foreign-aid programs and partners scramble.·2025-01-20ReutersTrump returns to the White House; day-one executive orders on tariffs, deportations, climate, and TikTok.·2024-12-08ReutersBashar al-Assad regime falls in Syria after 53 years; rebels enter Damascus.·2024-11-21Al JazeeraICC issues arrest warrant for Netanyahu over Gaza war crimes allegations.·2024-11-05APDonald Trump wins second term; Republicans take both chambers of Congress.·2024-09-27ReutersIsraeli airstrike kills Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut.·2024-09-17ReutersCoordinated pager attacks in Lebanon kill dozens and wound thousands attributed to Hezbollah.·2026-05-20Carbon Brief12-month global temperature anomaly stays above 1.55°C for the third consecutive year.·2026-02-05FASNew START Treaty officially expires with no successor agreement; nuclear-arms-control architecture collapses.·2025-12-04ReutersEuropean far-right gains in multiple national elections; centrist coalitions struggle to form.·2025-11-12ReutersWhite-collar AI layoffs accelerate across legal, marketing, and customer-support sectors.·2025-10-30WHOWHO: adolescent mental-health diagnoses up sharply versus pre-pandemic baseline.·2025-09-15LancetLancet study: indirect death toll from Gaza war likely exceeds 186,000.·2025-07-22CopernicusEurope shatters multiple national heat records in July heatwave; 50°C hit in parts of the south.·2025-06-22CNNUS bombs Iranian nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan during '12-day war.'·2025-06-13ReutersIsrael launches large-scale strikes on Iranian nuclear and command targets.·2025-04-30BBCIndia and Pakistan exchange strikes after Pahalgam attack in Kashmir.·2025-04-02ReutersTrump announces sweeping 'reciprocal' tariffs; global markets sell off hard.·2025-02-06ReutersTrump pauses most USAID funding; foreign-aid programs and partners scramble.·2025-01-20ReutersTrump returns to the White House; day-one executive orders on tariffs, deportations, climate, and TikTok.·2024-12-08ReutersBashar al-Assad regime falls in Syria after 53 years; rebels enter Damascus.·2024-11-21Al JazeeraICC issues arrest warrant for Netanyahu over Gaza war crimes allegations.·2024-11-05APDonald Trump wins second term; Republicans take both chambers of Congress.·2024-09-27ReutersIsraeli airstrike kills Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut.·2024-09-17ReutersCoordinated pager attacks in Lebanon kill dozens and wound thousands attributed to Hezbollah.·
2024-08-24FTPavel Durov arrested in France; Telegram free-speech and crime debate erupts.·2024-08-04ReutersOpenAI o1 'reasoning' model debuts; cost of intelligent compute keeps falling.·2024-07-13ReutersTrump shot at Pennsylvania rally; survives.·2024-05-30ReutersDonald Trump becomes first US former president convicted of a felony.·2024-04-13BBCIran launches its first-ever direct strike on Israel: 300+ missiles and drones.·2024-02-16ReutersAlexei Navalny dies in Russian Arctic penal colony.·2024-01-26APICJ orders Israel to prevent genocidal acts in Gaza; genocide case proceeds.·2024-01-09ReutersHouthi attacks on Red Sea shipping force major carriers to reroute around Africa.·2023-12-12ReutersCOP28 ends with first-ever call for the world to 'transition away from fossil fuels.'·2023-11-15UN OCHAGaza death toll passes 11,000; UN warns of famine and collapse of medical system.·2023-10-07ReutersHamas attacks southern Israel; 1,195 killed and 251 hostages taken.·2023-09-08CopernicusEarth surpasses 1.5°C above pre-industrial averaged over 12 months for the first time.·2023-08-23ReutersYevgeny Prigozhin killed in a plane crash north of Moscow.·2023-08-08APMaui wildfires destroy historic Lahaina and kill at least 100.·2023-06-23FTWagner Group mutiny; Prigozhin's column marches on Moscow, then turns back.·2023-05-05WHOWHO declares the end of the COVID-19 global health emergency.·2023-03-22WMOAtmospheric CO₂ breaks 420 ppm for the first time in 4 million years.·2023-02-06ReutersEarthquake in Türkiye and Syria kills more than 59,000.·2022-11-30ReutersOpenAI launches ChatGPT to the public; mass-market generative AI begins.·2022-10-27ReutersElon Musk completes Twitter takeover; mass layoffs and policy reversals follow.·2024-08-24FTPavel Durov arrested in France; Telegram free-speech and crime debate erupts.·2024-08-04ReutersOpenAI o1 'reasoning' model debuts; cost of intelligent compute keeps falling.·2024-07-13ReutersTrump shot at Pennsylvania rally; survives.·2024-05-30ReutersDonald Trump becomes first US former president convicted of a felony.·2024-04-13BBCIran launches its first-ever direct strike on Israel: 300+ missiles and drones.·2024-02-16ReutersAlexei Navalny dies in Russian Arctic penal colony.·2024-01-26APICJ orders Israel to prevent genocidal acts in Gaza; genocide case proceeds.·2024-01-09ReutersHouthi attacks on Red Sea shipping force major carriers to reroute around Africa.·2023-12-12ReutersCOP28 ends with first-ever call for the world to 'transition away from fossil fuels.'·2023-11-15UN OCHAGaza death toll passes 11,000; UN warns of famine and collapse of medical system.·2023-10-07ReutersHamas attacks southern Israel; 1,195 killed and 251 hostages taken.·2023-09-08CopernicusEarth surpasses 1.5°C above pre-industrial averaged over 12 months for the first time.·2023-08-23ReutersYevgeny Prigozhin killed in a plane crash north of Moscow.·2023-08-08APMaui wildfires destroy historic Lahaina and kill at least 100.·2023-06-23FTWagner Group mutiny; Prigozhin's column marches on Moscow, then turns back.·2023-05-05WHOWHO declares the end of the COVID-19 global health emergency.·2023-03-22WMOAtmospheric CO₂ breaks 420 ppm for the first time in 4 million years.·2023-02-06ReutersEarthquake in Türkiye and Syria kills more than 59,000.·2022-11-30ReutersOpenAI launches ChatGPT to the public; mass-market generative AI begins.·2022-10-27ReutersElon Musk completes Twitter takeover; mass layoffs and policy reversals follow.·
2026-05-20Carbon Brief12-month global temperature anomaly stays above 1.55°C for the third consecutive year.·2026-02-05FASNew START Treaty officially expires with no successor agreement; nuclear-arms-control architecture collapses.·2025-12-04ReutersEuropean far-right gains in multiple national elections; centrist coalitions struggle to form.·2025-11-12ReutersWhite-collar AI layoffs accelerate across legal, marketing, and customer-support sectors.·2025-10-30WHOWHO: adolescent mental-health diagnoses up sharply versus pre-pandemic baseline.·2025-09-15LancetLancet study: indirect death toll from Gaza war likely exceeds 186,000.·2025-07-22CopernicusEurope shatters multiple national heat records in July heatwave; 50°C hit in parts of the south.·2025-06-22CNNUS bombs Iranian nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan during '12-day war.'·2025-06-13ReutersIsrael launches large-scale strikes on Iranian nuclear and command targets.·2025-04-30BBCIndia and Pakistan exchange strikes after Pahalgam attack in Kashmir.·2025-04-02ReutersTrump announces sweeping 'reciprocal' tariffs; global markets sell off hard.·2025-02-06ReutersTrump pauses most USAID funding; foreign-aid programs and partners scramble.·2025-01-20ReutersTrump returns to the White House; day-one executive orders on tariffs, deportations, climate, and TikTok.·2024-12-08ReutersBashar al-Assad regime falls in Syria after 53 years; rebels enter Damascus.·2024-11-21Al JazeeraICC issues arrest warrant for Netanyahu over Gaza war crimes allegations.·2024-11-05APDonald Trump wins second term; Republicans take both chambers of Congress.·2024-09-27ReutersIsraeli airstrike kills Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut.·2024-09-17ReutersCoordinated pager attacks in Lebanon kill dozens and wound thousands attributed to Hezbollah.·2024-08-24FTPavel Durov arrested in France; Telegram free-speech and crime debate erupts.·2024-08-04ReutersOpenAI o1 'reasoning' model debuts; cost of intelligent compute keeps falling.·2024-07-13ReutersTrump shot at Pennsylvania rally; survives.·2024-05-30ReutersDonald Trump becomes first US former president convicted of a felony.·2024-04-13BBCIran launches its first-ever direct strike on Israel: 300+ missiles and drones.·2024-02-16ReutersAlexei Navalny dies in Russian Arctic penal colony.·2024-01-26APICJ orders Israel to prevent genocidal acts in Gaza; genocide case proceeds.·2024-01-09ReutersHouthi attacks on Red Sea shipping force major carriers to reroute around Africa.·2023-12-12ReutersCOP28 ends with first-ever call for the world to 'transition away from fossil fuels.'·2023-11-15UN OCHAGaza death toll passes 11,000; UN warns of famine and collapse of medical system.·2023-10-07ReutersHamas attacks southern Israel; 1,195 killed and 251 hostages taken.·2023-09-08CopernicusEarth surpasses 1.5°C above pre-industrial averaged over 12 months for the first time.·2023-08-23ReutersYevgeny Prigozhin killed in a plane crash north of Moscow.·2023-08-08APMaui wildfires destroy historic Lahaina and kill at least 100.·2023-06-23FTWagner Group mutiny; Prigozhin's column marches on Moscow, then turns back.·2023-05-05WHOWHO declares the end of the COVID-19 global health emergency.·2023-03-22WMOAtmospheric CO₂ breaks 420 ppm for the first time in 4 million years.·2023-02-06ReutersEarthquake in Türkiye and Syria kills more than 59,000.·2022-11-30ReutersOpenAI launches ChatGPT to the public; mass-market generative AI begins.·2022-10-27ReutersElon Musk completes Twitter takeover; mass layoffs and policy reversals follow.·2022-09-16GuardianMahsa Amini dies in Iranian custody; women-led protests sweep the country.·2022-09-08BBCQueen Elizabeth II dies after 70 years on the throne.·2022-08-31ReutersPakistan floods displace 33 million; a third of the country underwater.·2022-06-24NYTUS Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade, ending the constitutional right to abortion.·2022-05-24NYTGunman kills 19 children and 2 teachers at Robb Elementary in Uvalde, Texas.·2022-03-09APRussian shelling of a Mariupol maternity hospital draws global condemnation.·2022-02-24BBCRussia launches full-scale invasion of Ukraine; largest land war in Europe since 1945.·2021-11-30NatureOmicron variant detected in southern Africa; spreads globally within weeks.·2021-10-31Carbon BriefIPCC: world on a 2.7°C warming track even if every Paris pledge is met.·2021-08-15ReutersTaliban enter Kabul; Afghan government collapses within hours of US withdrawal.·2021-07-09BBCWestern Canada heat dome kills 600 in days; Lytton burns to the ground.·2021-07-01BBCHong Kong's Apple Daily forced to shut as Beijing tightens national-security law.·2021-03-23FTContainer ship Ever Given blocks the Suez Canal for six days, halting global trade.·2021-02-15Texas TribuneTexas power grid collapses in winter storm; hundreds die in their homes.·2021-01-06ReutersPro-Trump mob storms the US Capitol to block certification of the election; five dead.·2020-12-31WHOGlobal COVID-19 deaths pass 1.8 million in the pandemic's first year.·2020-11-07APBiden defeats Trump; Trump refuses to concede the election.·2020-09-09SF ChronicleCalifornia wildfire smoke turns the San Francisco sky a dystopian orange.·2020-08-04Al JazeeraBeirut port explosion kills more than 200 and flattens half the city.·2020-05-25NYTGeorge Floyd killed by Minneapolis police; protests sweep cities worldwide.·2020-03-11BBCWHO declares COVID-19 a pandemic; global lockdowns begin.·2020-01-30ReutersWHO declares novel coronavirus a global health emergency.·2026-05-20Carbon Brief12-month global temperature anomaly stays above 1.55°C for the third consecutive year.·2026-02-05FASNew START Treaty officially expires with no successor agreement; nuclear-arms-control architecture collapses.·2025-12-04ReutersEuropean far-right gains in multiple national elections; centrist coalitions struggle to form.·2025-11-12ReutersWhite-collar AI layoffs accelerate across legal, marketing, and customer-support sectors.·2025-10-30WHOWHO: adolescent mental-health diagnoses up sharply versus pre-pandemic baseline.·2025-09-15LancetLancet study: indirect death toll from Gaza war likely exceeds 186,000.·2025-07-22CopernicusEurope shatters multiple national heat records in July heatwave; 50°C hit in parts of the south.·2025-06-22CNNUS bombs Iranian nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan during '12-day war.'·2025-06-13ReutersIsrael launches large-scale strikes on Iranian nuclear and command targets.·2025-04-30BBCIndia and Pakistan exchange strikes after Pahalgam attack in Kashmir.·2025-04-02ReutersTrump announces sweeping 'reciprocal' tariffs; global markets sell off hard.·2025-02-06ReutersTrump pauses most USAID funding; foreign-aid programs and partners scramble.·2025-01-20ReutersTrump returns to the White House; day-one executive orders on tariffs, deportations, climate, and TikTok.·2024-12-08ReutersBashar al-Assad regime falls in Syria after 53 years; rebels enter Damascus.·2024-11-21Al JazeeraICC issues arrest warrant for Netanyahu over Gaza war crimes allegations.·2024-11-05APDonald Trump wins second term; Republicans take both chambers of Congress.·2024-09-27ReutersIsraeli airstrike kills Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut.·2024-09-17ReutersCoordinated pager attacks in Lebanon kill dozens and wound thousands attributed to Hezbollah.·2024-08-24FTPavel Durov arrested in France; Telegram free-speech and crime debate erupts.·2024-08-04ReutersOpenAI o1 'reasoning' model debuts; cost of intelligent compute keeps falling.·2024-07-13ReutersTrump shot at Pennsylvania rally; survives.·2024-05-30ReutersDonald Trump becomes first US former president convicted of a felony.·2024-04-13BBCIran launches its first-ever direct strike on Israel: 300+ missiles and drones.·2024-02-16ReutersAlexei Navalny dies in Russian Arctic penal colony.·2024-01-26APICJ orders Israel to prevent genocidal acts in Gaza; genocide case proceeds.·2024-01-09ReutersHouthi attacks on Red Sea shipping force major carriers to reroute around Africa.·2023-12-12ReutersCOP28 ends with first-ever call for the world to 'transition away from fossil fuels.'·2023-11-15UN OCHAGaza death toll passes 11,000; UN warns of famine and collapse of medical system.·2023-10-07ReutersHamas attacks southern Israel; 1,195 killed and 251 hostages taken.·2023-09-08CopernicusEarth surpasses 1.5°C above pre-industrial averaged over 12 months for the first time.·2023-08-23ReutersYevgeny Prigozhin killed in a plane crash north of Moscow.·2023-08-08APMaui wildfires destroy historic Lahaina and kill at least 100.·2023-06-23FTWagner Group mutiny; Prigozhin's column marches on Moscow, then turns back.·2023-05-05WHOWHO declares the end of the COVID-19 global health emergency.·2023-03-22WMOAtmospheric CO₂ breaks 420 ppm for the first time in 4 million years.·2023-02-06ReutersEarthquake in Türkiye and Syria kills more than 59,000.·2022-11-30ReutersOpenAI launches ChatGPT to the public; mass-market generative AI begins.·2022-10-27ReutersElon Musk completes Twitter takeover; mass layoffs and policy reversals follow.·2022-09-16GuardianMahsa Amini dies in Iranian custody; women-led protests sweep the country.·2022-09-08BBCQueen Elizabeth II dies after 70 years on the throne.·2022-08-31ReutersPakistan floods displace 33 million; a third of the country underwater.·2022-06-24NYTUS Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade, ending the constitutional right to abortion.·2022-05-24NYTGunman kills 19 children and 2 teachers at Robb Elementary in Uvalde, Texas.·2022-03-09APRussian shelling of a Mariupol maternity hospital draws global condemnation.·2022-02-24BBCRussia launches full-scale invasion of Ukraine; largest land war in Europe since 1945.·2021-11-30NatureOmicron variant detected in southern Africa; spreads globally within weeks.·2021-10-31Carbon BriefIPCC: world on a 2.7°C warming track even if every Paris pledge is met.·2021-08-15ReutersTaliban enter Kabul; Afghan government collapses within hours of US withdrawal.·2021-07-09BBCWestern Canada heat dome kills 600 in days; Lytton burns to the ground.·2021-07-01BBCHong Kong's Apple Daily forced to shut as Beijing tightens national-security law.·2021-03-23FTContainer ship Ever Given blocks the Suez Canal for six days, halting global trade.·2021-02-15Texas TribuneTexas power grid collapses in winter storm; hundreds die in their homes.·2021-01-06ReutersPro-Trump mob storms the US Capitol to block certification of the election; five dead.·2020-12-31WHOGlobal COVID-19 deaths pass 1.8 million in the pandemic's first year.·2020-11-07APBiden defeats Trump; Trump refuses to concede the election.·2020-09-09SF ChronicleCalifornia wildfire smoke turns the San Francisco sky a dystopian orange.·2020-08-04Al JazeeraBeirut port explosion kills more than 200 and flattens half the city.·2020-05-25NYTGeorge Floyd killed by Minneapolis police; protests sweep cities worldwide.·2020-03-11BBCWHO declares COVID-19 a pandemic; global lockdowns begin.·2020-01-30ReutersWHO declares novel coronavirus a global health emergency.·
DYING·HUMANITY / PILLAR / DOMESTIC & GENDERED VIOLENCE

ONE IN THREE WOMEN. EVERY HOUR,
ELEVEN ARE KILLED BY FAMILY.

The WHO estimates ~1 in 3 women globally have experienced physical or sexual intimate-partner violence. UNODC counts ~89,000 women killed intentionally per year, more than half by a partner or family member, about eleven every hour. UNICEF: ~640 million currently-alive women were married as children. The justice systems that are supposed to respond to this leak almost everything they receive: in the UK, only ~1 in 100 estimated rapes ends in conviction. This is the baseline, not the exception.

T −11years·0days·00hrs:00min:00sec
SEVERE· COMPOSITE 78/100
THE NUMBERS

Six figures behind the composite.

1 in 3
·
Women experiencing IPV in their lifetime
WHO 2021 Global Estimates. Magnitude higher in conflict-affected regions and parts of South Asia.
89
K
Women intentionally killed per year, globally
UNODC 2024. ~55% by intimate partner or family. ~11 every hour.
640
M
Women alive today married as children
UNICEF 2023. 12 million girls married each year. Concentrated in West and Central Africa and South Asia.
1.3
%
·
UK rape reports leading to conviction
Of every 100 estimated rapes, only ~16 are reported, ~3 are charged, ~1.3 lead to conviction.
58
%
Girls/young women reporting online harassment
Plan International 2020. Women of colour face highest intensity. AI-generated non-consensual content accelerating.
10
·
Countries criminalising coercive control
UK 2015 was first; Ireland, France, Scotland, NZ followed. Most of the world still does not recognise it.
COMPOSITE

One 0-100 score.

025456582100
78
Composite Index
Severe
CURRENT READING

Heuristic seed snapshot. Violence stress sits firmly in the 'Severe' band. WHO estimates ~1 in 3 women globally have experienced physical or sexual intimate-partner violence in their lifetime. UNODC counts ~89,000 women killed intentionally per year, more than half by intimate partners or family. UNICEF: ~640 million women alive today were married as children. The reporting-to-conviction funnel collapses by roughly 95% in most jurisdictions; only ~5 in 100 reported sexual assaults end in conviction in the UK; the US figure is similar. Online gender-based violence, coercive control as a distinct offence, and dedicated shelter capacity are areas where the policy infrastructure has only begun to catch up to the prevalence.

Severe· composite 78/100
TRAJECTORY

Over time.

GLOBAL TRENDS

Three series. Two falling slowly. One rising.

1995200020042009201420182023IPV lifetime pFemicides per Child marriage0-100 PER-SERIES NORMALISED
  • IPV lifetime prevalence (%)WHO. Women aged 15+, ever-partnered.
  • Femicides per year (thousands)UNODC. 70K in 2015 → 89K in 2023.
  • Child marriage prevalence (%)UNICEF. 33% in 1995 → 19% in 2023.
SOURCE · WHO Global Estimates 2021; UNODC Global Study on Homicide 2024; UNICEF Child Marriage Data Hub 2023
FEMICIDE RATE BY COUNTRY

Women killed per 100,000 women, year on year.

UNODC harmonised rates. South Africa anchors the high end at 9.6; Nordic and East Asian averages sit below 0.5.

SORT
  • 🇿🇦South AfricaSub-Saharan Africa
    9.6
  • 🇭🇳HondurasAmericas
    6
  • 🇧🇴BoliviaAmericas
    4.4
  • 🇷🇺RussiaRussia & C. Asia
    3.3
  • 🇲🇽MexicoAmericas
    3.1
  • 🇧🇷BrazilAmericas
    2.6
  • 🇺🇸United StatesAmericas
    2.3
  • 🇹🇷TürkiyeMENA
    2.2
  • 🇫🇷FranceEurope
    0.9
  • 🇩🇪GermanyEurope
    0.5
  • 🇬🇧United KingdomEurope
    0.5
  • 🇮🇹ItalyEurope
    0.4
  • 🇪🇸SpainEurope
    0.4
  • 🇯🇵JapanAsia
    0.3
READINGSouth Africa stands out as the highest at 9.6. Among the highest in the world. 'Femicide capital' designation in WHO 2019.
SOURCE · UNODC Global Study on Homicide; UN Women
SIGNALS

What the score is measuring.

Intimate-partner-violence lifetime prevalence
Share of women aged 15+ who have experienced physical and/or sexual intimate-partner violence in their lifetime.
weight 13% · sources: WHO Global Database on the Prevalence of Violence Against Women, UN Women
WHO 2021: 27% of partnered women aged 15+ have experienced physical/sexual IPV at least once; lifetime ever-partnered prevalence ~30%. Magnitudes higher in conflict-affected regions and parts of South Asia.
cit: WHO 2021 Global Estimates
9.0
Femicide rate
Women killed by an intimate partner or family member per 100,000 female population.
weight 12% · sources: UNODC; UN Women Femicide Watch
UNODC 2024: ~89,000 women killed intentionally globally in 2023; ~55% by an intimate partner or family member. South Africa, Mexico, Brazil among the highest rates per capita.
cit: UNODC 2024 Femicide Report
8.0
Child marriage prevalence
Share of women aged 20-24 who were first married before age 18.
weight 10% · sources: UNICEF Child Marriage Data Hub, UNFPA
UNICEF 2023: ~640 million currently-alive women were married as children. 12 million girls married each year. Concentrated in West and Central Africa and South Asia.
cit: UNICEF Child Marriage Data Hub 2023
8.0
Adverse-childhood-experiences exposure
Share of adults reporting 4 or more ACEs (abuse, neglect, household dysfunction).
weight 10% · sources: CDC BRFSS; WHO ACE-IQ international studies
CDC BRFSS + Felitti ACE replication studies: ~17% of US adults report 4+ ACEs. WHO ACE-IQ replications: 12-25% across countries.
cit: CDC BRFSS 2023 · Felitti et al. 1998
7.0
Coercive-control criminalisation gap
Share of countries that have NOT criminalised coercive control as a distinct offence.
weight 8% · sources: UN Women legal database; WomanStats
Only ~10 countries have criminalised coercive control as a distinct offence (UK 2015, first; followed by Ireland, France, Scotland, Australia partial, NZ, etc.). The vast majority of national legal codes do not recognise it.
cit: UN Women legal database
8.0
Reporting-to-conviction attrition
Loss along the funnel: experienced → reported → investigated → prosecuted → convicted.
weight 10% · sources: Rape crisis network UK; Bureau of Justice Statistics (US); EUR Eurostat
UK: of every 100 rapes reported, 4-6 reach conviction. US: ~25 of every 100 rapes reported reach arrest; ~2-5 reach felony conviction. Eurostat: comparable attrition across reporting EU member states.
cit: UK MoJ; US BJS NCVS; Eurostat
9.0
Shelter access per capita
Beds in dedicated DV / IPV shelters per 100,000 women.
weight 7% · sources: NNEDV (US); Women's Aid (UK); WAVE Europe
NNEDV one-day census 2024: ~78,000 victims served daily in US; unmet requests for shelter beds ~12,000 per day. Council of Europe GREVIO: many member states below Istanbul Convention recommended bed-per-population threshold.
cit: NNEDV; GREVIO 2024
8.0
Online gender-based violence
Share of women / non-binary people reporting serious online harassment in past year.
weight 10% · sources: Plan International State of the World's Girls, Amnesty International Toxic TwitterLLM-assisted
Plan International 2020: 58% of girls and young women globally have experienced online harassment; Amnesty: women of colour and minority women face highest abuse intensity. Increasing post-2022 with AI-generated non-consensual content.
cit: Plan International; Amnesty Toxic Twitter
8.0
Honour-based violence prevalence
Documented cases of honour-killing and honour-related coercive practices, region-weighted.
weight 10% · sources: HBVA database; UN OHCHR
UN OHCHR: ~5,000 honour-killings per year globally (likely substantial under-reporting). Concentrated in South Asia, MENA, parts of Sub-Saharan Africa, and diaspora communities.
cit: UN OHCHR; HBVA database
7.0
Policy recognition & commitment
Composite of national DV legislation, Istanbul Convention ratification, funded national action plans.
weight 10% · sources: UN Women legal database; Council of Europe GREVIO
Istanbul Convention: 39 ratifications; Türkiye withdrew 2021. ~80% of countries now have some form of DV legislation but enforcement and funding lag far behind. UN Women: only 26% of countries have funded national action plans on violence against women.
cit: Council of Europe; UN Women legal database
6.0
PERSPECTIVES

Several traditions reading the same data.

On the question of

Why is gendered violence so pervasive, and what frame should we read it in?

Cause & framing
Western scientific
Public-health framing

Treats IPV as a measurable, preventable public-health problem with quantifiable risk factors and intervention pathways. The WHO Global Burden of Disease analyses put IPV among the top causes of disability-adjusted life-years lost among women aged 15-49. The public-health frame produces interventions but can elide structural-power questions.

Violence against women is everywhere a problem of magnitude that warrants the responses we give to any other major public-health epidemic.

WHO Global Status Report on Violence Prevention 2014; Lori Heise
Critical
Feminist legal & structural power

Frames IPV and femicide as outcomes of structural patriarchy: economic dependence, legal asymmetries, normalisation of coercive control. Argues for legal reforms (criminalising coercive control, Istanbul Convention compliance, removing marital rape exemptions) and broader political-economic redistribution.

Catharine MacKinnon; Sally Engle Merry; Mary Anne Franks
Lived experience
Survivor & service-provider

From those who've been inside the systems: what makes a difference is safe housing first, economic independence second, perpetrator accountability third, in that order. Generic legal reform without funded service infrastructure produces glossy laws with no implementation.

Women's Aid (UK); NCADV (US); WAVE Europe
Global South
Honour-shame cultural critique

In communities where family honour is structurally tied to women's perceived sexual conduct, both the violence and the silence around it are reproduced inside families and tolerated by local authorities. Western-style legal reforms run into reporting suppression that legal codes alone cannot fix.

Honour Based Violence Awareness Network; Aisha Gill
Religious
Religious-community · dual

Religious communities are simultaneously protective (mutual-aid networks, marriage-counsel infrastructure, men's-accountability practices in some Pentecostal and Sufi traditions) and complicit (theology of female submission, refusal to recognise marital rape, sheltering perpetrators inside congregational structures). Both readings are honest.

Steven Tracy, Mending the Soul; FaithTrust Institute
Indigenous
Indigenous · MMIWG

The Missing & Murdered Indigenous Women & Girls movement frames the violence as both gendered and colonial: the product of dispossession, residential-school trauma, and state-tolerated impunity, not just patriarchy. The Canadian National Inquiry concluded that what is happening to Indigenous women constitutes 'a Canadian genocide'.

Canadian National Inquiry into MMIWG 2019; Sovereign Bodies Institute
Critical
Men's-work / perpetrator-change

Most IPV is committed by men. Treating men as un-intervenable subjects (vs as people who can be re-socialised through accountability programmes) is empirically wrong. Programmes like Caledonian, ManKind Project, Caring Dads show measurable re-offence reduction: small effects but real.

Respect UK; Caledonian System evaluation; Promundo
On the question of

Which interventions actually move the indicators?

What helps
Lived experience
Safe-housing first

From service providers: the single highest-leverage intervention is access to safe emergency accommodation. Without it, leaving is impossible; with it, everything else becomes available. UK Women's Aid trials show housing-first dramatically reduces post-separation IPV exposure.

Women's Aid; NNEDV; Solace Women's Aid
Western scientific
Economic-independence

Cash transfers to women, micro-finance to women, equal-pay enforcement, parental-leave reform. The IMF-WB review of 30+ studies: ~10-15% reductions in IPV prevalence in trials where women's independent income materially increases.

IMF Working Paper 2022; World Bank Gender Innovation Lab
Critical
Legal reform

Criminalising coercive control, removing marital-rape exemptions, mandatory prosecution policies, Istanbul Convention compliance. UK 2015 coercive control law: ~30,000 convictions to date, normative effect possibly larger than direct prosecution count.

Council of Europe GREVIO; Centre for Women's Justice
Critical
Perpetrator programmes

Court-mandated batterer-intervention programmes with regular supervision. Effect sizes modest (~5-15% reduction in re-offending) but consistent. Best-evidenced versions integrate substance-abuse and mental-health support.

Caledonian System; Respect UK; Project Mirabal
Global South
Community / social-norms

Long-running community-level programmes that shift gender-norm attitudes among men and women alike. SASA! in Uganda is the best-evidenced; reduced past-year IPV by ~52% over 4 years. Norm change is slow; without it, legal reform under-performs.

SASA! / Raising Voices; Tostan; Promundo
REPORTING-TO-CONVICTION FUNNELS

Where the cases go.

UK · RAPE CASES

100 → 16 reported → 3 charged → 1.3 convicted.

Of every 100 estimated rapes in England and Wales, about 16 are reported, 3 are charged, and 1.3 lead to conviction. The steepest drop is between report and charge.

  1. Estimated occurrences
    Crime Survey of England and Wales extrapolation.
    100of 100
  2. Reported to police
    Most are never reported; under-reporting especially severe for intimate-partner cases.
    ↓ DROP-OFF: 84% from previous stage
    16of 100
  3. Charge brought
    ↓ DROP-OFF: 81% from previous stage
    3.0of 100
  4. Conviction
    ↓ DROP-OFF: 57% from previous stage
    1.3of 100
CUMULATIVEFrom every 100 occurrences, only 1.3 result in conviction. The funnel does not collapse uniformly; the sharpest drop is between report and prosecution, which is where intervention has the most leverage.
SOURCE · Crime Survey of England and Wales; Crown Prosecution Service
US · SEXUAL ASSAULT

100 → 31 reported → 10 referred → 6 prosecuted → 3 convicted → 2.5 incarcerated.

Reporting rate is higher than the UK (~31% vs ~16%); the prosecution funnel is similarly steep. Plea-bargain practice masks some of the variance.

  1. Estimated occurrences
    BJS NCVS extrapolation for sexual-assault incidents in the US population.
    100of 100
  2. Reported to police
    NCVS estimate; the remaining ~69 are never reported.
    ↓ DROP-OFF: 69% from previous stage
    31of 100
  3. Arrest made
    ↓ DROP-OFF: 68% from previous stage
    10of 100
  4. Prosecution opened
    ↓ DROP-OFF: 40% from previous stage
    6.0of 100
  5. Felony conviction
    ↓ DROP-OFF: 50% from previous stage
    3.0of 100
  6. Incarceration
    ↓ DROP-OFF: 17% from previous stage
    2.5of 100
CUMULATIVEFrom every 100 occurrences, only 2.5 result in incarceration. The funnel does not collapse uniformly; the sharpest drop is between report and prosecution, which is where intervention has the most leverage.
SOURCE · US Bureau of Justice Statistics NCVS; RAINN
TRUST

Sources, weights, and code are open.

Data provenance

Where every number comes from

The composite index is computed from the signals listed on this page, each backed by one or more named sources. Where the source publishes a public dataset or feed it is linked below; where a signal involves qualitative judgement, the LLM-assisted pass is explicitly marked on the signal card.

  • ·Amnesty International Toxic Twitter
  • ·CDC BRFSS; WHO ACE-IQ international studies
  • ·HBVA database; UN OHCHR
  • ·NNEDV (US); Women's Aid (UK); WAVE Europe
  • ·Plan International State of the World's Girls
  • ·Rape crisis network UK; Bureau of Justice Statistics (US); EUR Eurostat
  • ·UN Women
  • ·UN Women legal database; Council of Europe GREVIO
  • ·UN Women legal database; WomanStats
  • ·UNFPA
  • ·UNICEF Child Marriage Data Hub
  • ·UNODC; UN Women Femicide Watch
  • ·WHO Global Database on the Prevalence of Violence Against Women
Audit trail

Everything is versioned

  • Every hourly snapshot is committed to git with a message naming the signals that moved.
  • A daily snapshot is archived to data/history-current/ for the calibration log.
  • Raw scraped article lists are written to data/raw/ so a score is reproducible from its input bundle.
  • Signal definitions, weights, and seeded scores all live in plain JSON or TypeScript; anyone can open a PR challenging a value and explain why.
What this is NOT
Not a prediction.
The composite index is descriptive. Subjective estimates are published openly so the track record becomes visible, not because the author believes them precisely calibrated today.
Not journalism.
Sources are listed but this is not original reporting. If the inputs feeding the LLM are wrong, the score is wrong. Triangulate with primary reporting before drawing conclusions.
Not impartial.
Signal definitions, weights, and historical scores reflect the author's reading. Bias is unavoidable in this kind of synthesis; the mitigation is that it's all explicit and challengeable signal by signal.
METHODOLOGY

How this pillar is scored.

Methodology & limits

Ten signals, weighted into a 0-100 score. Four prevalence measures (IPV, femicide, child marriage, ACE exposure), three structural (coercive-control law, shelter access, policy recognition), and three on the justice funnel (reporting-to-charge-to-conviction attrition).

Online gender-based violence is weighted on a par with offline. The Glitch / Plan International / Amnesty body of work on cross-over harm has gotten too consistent to discount: large online harassment campaigns measurably raise real-world threat exposure and silencing effects, especially for women in public life.

Three other pillars feed this one in the data. War: women in conflict zones face systematically higher IPV and conflict-related sexual violence. Inequality: economic dependence is one of the strongest structural risk factors in the literature. Religion: religious-nationalist movements often run restrictive gender policy as a flagship issue.

Intimate-partner-violence lifetime prevalence
w 13%
Share of women aged 15+ who have experienced physical and/or sexual intimate-partner violence in their lifetime.
sources: WHO Global Database on the Prevalence of Violence Against Women, UN Women
Femicide rate
w 12%
Women killed by an intimate partner or family member per 100,000 female population.
sources: UNODC; UN Women Femicide Watch
Child marriage prevalence
w 10%
Share of women aged 20-24 who were first married before age 18.
sources: UNICEF Child Marriage Data Hub, UNFPA
Adverse-childhood-experiences exposure
w 10%
Share of adults reporting 4 or more ACEs (abuse, neglect, household dysfunction).
sources: CDC BRFSS; WHO ACE-IQ international studies
Coercive-control criminalisation gap
w 8%
Share of countries that have NOT criminalised coercive control as a distinct offence.
sources: UN Women legal database; WomanStats
Reporting-to-conviction attrition
w 10%
Loss along the funnel: experienced → reported → investigated → prosecuted → convicted.
sources: Rape crisis network UK; Bureau of Justice Statistics (US); EUR Eurostat
Shelter access per capita
w 7%
Beds in dedicated DV / IPV shelters per 100,000 women.
sources: NNEDV (US); Women's Aid (UK); WAVE Europe
Online gender-based violence
w 10%
Share of women / non-binary people reporting serious online harassment in past year.
sources: Plan International State of the World's Girls, Amnesty International Toxic Twitter · LLM-assisted
Honour-based violence prevalence
w 10%
Documented cases of honour-killing and honour-related coercive practices, region-weighted.
sources: HBVA database; UN OHCHR
Policy recognition & commitment
w 10%
Composite of national DV legislation, Istanbul Convention ratification, funded national action plans.
sources: UN Women legal database; Council of Europe GREVIO
CROSS-REFERENCES · KEEP READING