dying·humanity
EVIDENCE LIVE FEED
2026-05-20Carbon Brief12-month global temperature anomaly stays above 1.55°C for the third consecutive year.·2026-02-05FASNew START Treaty officially expires with no successor agreement; nuclear-arms-control architecture collapses.·2025-12-04ReutersEuropean far-right gains in multiple national elections; centrist coalitions struggle to form.·2025-11-12ReutersWhite-collar AI layoffs accelerate across legal, marketing, and customer-support sectors.·2025-10-30WHOWHO: adolescent mental-health diagnoses up sharply versus pre-pandemic baseline.·2025-09-15LancetLancet study: indirect death toll from Gaza war likely exceeds 186,000.·2025-07-22CopernicusEurope shatters multiple national heat records in July heatwave; 50°C hit in parts of the south.·2025-06-22CNNUS bombs Iranian nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan during '12-day war.'·2025-06-13ReutersIsrael launches large-scale strikes on Iranian nuclear and command targets.·2025-04-30BBCIndia and Pakistan exchange strikes after Pahalgam attack in Kashmir.·2025-04-02ReutersTrump announces sweeping 'reciprocal' tariffs; global markets sell off hard.·2025-02-06ReutersTrump pauses most USAID funding; foreign-aid programs and partners scramble.·2025-01-20ReutersTrump returns to the White House; day-one executive orders on tariffs, deportations, climate, and TikTok.·2024-12-08ReutersBashar al-Assad regime falls in Syria after 53 years; rebels enter Damascus.·2024-11-21Al JazeeraICC issues arrest warrant for Netanyahu over Gaza war crimes allegations.·2024-11-05APDonald Trump wins second term; Republicans take both chambers of Congress.·2024-09-27ReutersIsraeli airstrike kills Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut.·2024-09-17ReutersCoordinated pager attacks in Lebanon kill dozens and wound thousands attributed to Hezbollah.·2026-05-20Carbon Brief12-month global temperature anomaly stays above 1.55°C for the third consecutive year.·2026-02-05FASNew START Treaty officially expires with no successor agreement; nuclear-arms-control architecture collapses.·2025-12-04ReutersEuropean far-right gains in multiple national elections; centrist coalitions struggle to form.·2025-11-12ReutersWhite-collar AI layoffs accelerate across legal, marketing, and customer-support sectors.·2025-10-30WHOWHO: adolescent mental-health diagnoses up sharply versus pre-pandemic baseline.·2025-09-15LancetLancet study: indirect death toll from Gaza war likely exceeds 186,000.·2025-07-22CopernicusEurope shatters multiple national heat records in July heatwave; 50°C hit in parts of the south.·2025-06-22CNNUS bombs Iranian nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan during '12-day war.'·2025-06-13ReutersIsrael launches large-scale strikes on Iranian nuclear and command targets.·2025-04-30BBCIndia and Pakistan exchange strikes after Pahalgam attack in Kashmir.·2025-04-02ReutersTrump announces sweeping 'reciprocal' tariffs; global markets sell off hard.·2025-02-06ReutersTrump pauses most USAID funding; foreign-aid programs and partners scramble.·2025-01-20ReutersTrump returns to the White House; day-one executive orders on tariffs, deportations, climate, and TikTok.·2024-12-08ReutersBashar al-Assad regime falls in Syria after 53 years; rebels enter Damascus.·2024-11-21Al JazeeraICC issues arrest warrant for Netanyahu over Gaza war crimes allegations.·2024-11-05APDonald Trump wins second term; Republicans take both chambers of Congress.·2024-09-27ReutersIsraeli airstrike kills Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut.·2024-09-17ReutersCoordinated pager attacks in Lebanon kill dozens and wound thousands attributed to Hezbollah.·
2024-08-24FTPavel Durov arrested in France; Telegram free-speech and crime debate erupts.·2024-08-04ReutersOpenAI o1 'reasoning' model debuts; cost of intelligent compute keeps falling.·2024-07-13ReutersTrump shot at Pennsylvania rally; survives.·2024-05-30ReutersDonald Trump becomes first US former president convicted of a felony.·2024-04-13BBCIran launches its first-ever direct strike on Israel: 300+ missiles and drones.·2024-02-16ReutersAlexei Navalny dies in Russian Arctic penal colony.·2024-01-26APICJ orders Israel to prevent genocidal acts in Gaza; genocide case proceeds.·2024-01-09ReutersHouthi attacks on Red Sea shipping force major carriers to reroute around Africa.·2023-12-12ReutersCOP28 ends with first-ever call for the world to 'transition away from fossil fuels.'·2023-11-15UN OCHAGaza death toll passes 11,000; UN warns of famine and collapse of medical system.·2023-10-07ReutersHamas attacks southern Israel; 1,195 killed and 251 hostages taken.·2023-09-08CopernicusEarth surpasses 1.5°C above pre-industrial averaged over 12 months for the first time.·2023-08-23ReutersYevgeny Prigozhin killed in a plane crash north of Moscow.·2023-08-08APMaui wildfires destroy historic Lahaina and kill at least 100.·2023-06-23FTWagner Group mutiny; Prigozhin's column marches on Moscow, then turns back.·2023-05-05WHOWHO declares the end of the COVID-19 global health emergency.·2023-03-22WMOAtmospheric CO₂ breaks 420 ppm for the first time in 4 million years.·2023-02-06ReutersEarthquake in Türkiye and Syria kills more than 59,000.·2022-11-30ReutersOpenAI launches ChatGPT to the public; mass-market generative AI begins.·2022-10-27ReutersElon Musk completes Twitter takeover; mass layoffs and policy reversals follow.·2024-08-24FTPavel Durov arrested in France; Telegram free-speech and crime debate erupts.·2024-08-04ReutersOpenAI o1 'reasoning' model debuts; cost of intelligent compute keeps falling.·2024-07-13ReutersTrump shot at Pennsylvania rally; survives.·2024-05-30ReutersDonald Trump becomes first US former president convicted of a felony.·2024-04-13BBCIran launches its first-ever direct strike on Israel: 300+ missiles and drones.·2024-02-16ReutersAlexei Navalny dies in Russian Arctic penal colony.·2024-01-26APICJ orders Israel to prevent genocidal acts in Gaza; genocide case proceeds.·2024-01-09ReutersHouthi attacks on Red Sea shipping force major carriers to reroute around Africa.·2023-12-12ReutersCOP28 ends with first-ever call for the world to 'transition away from fossil fuels.'·2023-11-15UN OCHAGaza death toll passes 11,000; UN warns of famine and collapse of medical system.·2023-10-07ReutersHamas attacks southern Israel; 1,195 killed and 251 hostages taken.·2023-09-08CopernicusEarth surpasses 1.5°C above pre-industrial averaged over 12 months for the first time.·2023-08-23ReutersYevgeny Prigozhin killed in a plane crash north of Moscow.·2023-08-08APMaui wildfires destroy historic Lahaina and kill at least 100.·2023-06-23FTWagner Group mutiny; Prigozhin's column marches on Moscow, then turns back.·2023-05-05WHOWHO declares the end of the COVID-19 global health emergency.·2023-03-22WMOAtmospheric CO₂ breaks 420 ppm for the first time in 4 million years.·2023-02-06ReutersEarthquake in Türkiye and Syria kills more than 59,000.·2022-11-30ReutersOpenAI launches ChatGPT to the public; mass-market generative AI begins.·2022-10-27ReutersElon Musk completes Twitter takeover; mass layoffs and policy reversals follow.·
2026-05-20Carbon Brief12-month global temperature anomaly stays above 1.55°C for the third consecutive year.·2026-02-05FASNew START Treaty officially expires with no successor agreement; nuclear-arms-control architecture collapses.·2025-12-04ReutersEuropean far-right gains in multiple national elections; centrist coalitions struggle to form.·2025-11-12ReutersWhite-collar AI layoffs accelerate across legal, marketing, and customer-support sectors.·2025-10-30WHOWHO: adolescent mental-health diagnoses up sharply versus pre-pandemic baseline.·2025-09-15LancetLancet study: indirect death toll from Gaza war likely exceeds 186,000.·2025-07-22CopernicusEurope shatters multiple national heat records in July heatwave; 50°C hit in parts of the south.·2025-06-22CNNUS bombs Iranian nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan during '12-day war.'·2025-06-13ReutersIsrael launches large-scale strikes on Iranian nuclear and command targets.·2025-04-30BBCIndia and Pakistan exchange strikes after Pahalgam attack in Kashmir.·2025-04-02ReutersTrump announces sweeping 'reciprocal' tariffs; global markets sell off hard.·2025-02-06ReutersTrump pauses most USAID funding; foreign-aid programs and partners scramble.·2025-01-20ReutersTrump returns to the White House; day-one executive orders on tariffs, deportations, climate, and TikTok.·2024-12-08ReutersBashar al-Assad regime falls in Syria after 53 years; rebels enter Damascus.·2024-11-21Al JazeeraICC issues arrest warrant for Netanyahu over Gaza war crimes allegations.·2024-11-05APDonald Trump wins second term; Republicans take both chambers of Congress.·2024-09-27ReutersIsraeli airstrike kills Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut.·2024-09-17ReutersCoordinated pager attacks in Lebanon kill dozens and wound thousands attributed to Hezbollah.·2024-08-24FTPavel Durov arrested in France; Telegram free-speech and crime debate erupts.·2024-08-04ReutersOpenAI o1 'reasoning' model debuts; cost of intelligent compute keeps falling.·2024-07-13ReutersTrump shot at Pennsylvania rally; survives.·2024-05-30ReutersDonald Trump becomes first US former president convicted of a felony.·2024-04-13BBCIran launches its first-ever direct strike on Israel: 300+ missiles and drones.·2024-02-16ReutersAlexei Navalny dies in Russian Arctic penal colony.·2024-01-26APICJ orders Israel to prevent genocidal acts in Gaza; genocide case proceeds.·2024-01-09ReutersHouthi attacks on Red Sea shipping force major carriers to reroute around Africa.·2023-12-12ReutersCOP28 ends with first-ever call for the world to 'transition away from fossil fuels.'·2023-11-15UN OCHAGaza death toll passes 11,000; UN warns of famine and collapse of medical system.·2023-10-07ReutersHamas attacks southern Israel; 1,195 killed and 251 hostages taken.·2023-09-08CopernicusEarth surpasses 1.5°C above pre-industrial averaged over 12 months for the first time.·2023-08-23ReutersYevgeny Prigozhin killed in a plane crash north of Moscow.·2023-08-08APMaui wildfires destroy historic Lahaina and kill at least 100.·2023-06-23FTWagner Group mutiny; Prigozhin's column marches on Moscow, then turns back.·2023-05-05WHOWHO declares the end of the COVID-19 global health emergency.·2023-03-22WMOAtmospheric CO₂ breaks 420 ppm for the first time in 4 million years.·2023-02-06ReutersEarthquake in Türkiye and Syria kills more than 59,000.·2022-11-30ReutersOpenAI launches ChatGPT to the public; mass-market generative AI begins.·2022-10-27ReutersElon Musk completes Twitter takeover; mass layoffs and policy reversals follow.·2022-09-16GuardianMahsa Amini dies in Iranian custody; women-led protests sweep the country.·2022-09-08BBCQueen Elizabeth II dies after 70 years on the throne.·2022-08-31ReutersPakistan floods displace 33 million; a third of the country underwater.·2022-06-24NYTUS Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade, ending the constitutional right to abortion.·2022-05-24NYTGunman kills 19 children and 2 teachers at Robb Elementary in Uvalde, Texas.·2022-03-09APRussian shelling of a Mariupol maternity hospital draws global condemnation.·2022-02-24BBCRussia launches full-scale invasion of Ukraine; largest land war in Europe since 1945.·2021-11-30NatureOmicron variant detected in southern Africa; spreads globally within weeks.·2021-10-31Carbon BriefIPCC: world on a 2.7°C warming track even if every Paris pledge is met.·2021-08-15ReutersTaliban enter Kabul; Afghan government collapses within hours of US withdrawal.·2021-07-09BBCWestern Canada heat dome kills 600 in days; Lytton burns to the ground.·2021-07-01BBCHong Kong's Apple Daily forced to shut as Beijing tightens national-security law.·2021-03-23FTContainer ship Ever Given blocks the Suez Canal for six days, halting global trade.·2021-02-15Texas TribuneTexas power grid collapses in winter storm; hundreds die in their homes.·2021-01-06ReutersPro-Trump mob storms the US Capitol to block certification of the election; five dead.·2020-12-31WHOGlobal COVID-19 deaths pass 1.8 million in the pandemic's first year.·2020-11-07APBiden defeats Trump; Trump refuses to concede the election.·2020-09-09SF ChronicleCalifornia wildfire smoke turns the San Francisco sky a dystopian orange.·2020-08-04Al JazeeraBeirut port explosion kills more than 200 and flattens half the city.·2020-05-25NYTGeorge Floyd killed by Minneapolis police; protests sweep cities worldwide.·2020-03-11BBCWHO declares COVID-19 a pandemic; global lockdowns begin.·2020-01-30ReutersWHO declares novel coronavirus a global health emergency.·2026-05-20Carbon Brief12-month global temperature anomaly stays above 1.55°C for the third consecutive year.·2026-02-05FASNew START Treaty officially expires with no successor agreement; nuclear-arms-control architecture collapses.·2025-12-04ReutersEuropean far-right gains in multiple national elections; centrist coalitions struggle to form.·2025-11-12ReutersWhite-collar AI layoffs accelerate across legal, marketing, and customer-support sectors.·2025-10-30WHOWHO: adolescent mental-health diagnoses up sharply versus pre-pandemic baseline.·2025-09-15LancetLancet study: indirect death toll from Gaza war likely exceeds 186,000.·2025-07-22CopernicusEurope shatters multiple national heat records in July heatwave; 50°C hit in parts of the south.·2025-06-22CNNUS bombs Iranian nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan during '12-day war.'·2025-06-13ReutersIsrael launches large-scale strikes on Iranian nuclear and command targets.·2025-04-30BBCIndia and Pakistan exchange strikes after Pahalgam attack in Kashmir.·2025-04-02ReutersTrump announces sweeping 'reciprocal' tariffs; global markets sell off hard.·2025-02-06ReutersTrump pauses most USAID funding; foreign-aid programs and partners scramble.·2025-01-20ReutersTrump returns to the White House; day-one executive orders on tariffs, deportations, climate, and TikTok.·2024-12-08ReutersBashar al-Assad regime falls in Syria after 53 years; rebels enter Damascus.·2024-11-21Al JazeeraICC issues arrest warrant for Netanyahu over Gaza war crimes allegations.·2024-11-05APDonald Trump wins second term; Republicans take both chambers of Congress.·2024-09-27ReutersIsraeli airstrike kills Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut.·2024-09-17ReutersCoordinated pager attacks in Lebanon kill dozens and wound thousands attributed to Hezbollah.·2024-08-24FTPavel Durov arrested in France; Telegram free-speech and crime debate erupts.·2024-08-04ReutersOpenAI o1 'reasoning' model debuts; cost of intelligent compute keeps falling.·2024-07-13ReutersTrump shot at Pennsylvania rally; survives.·2024-05-30ReutersDonald Trump becomes first US former president convicted of a felony.·2024-04-13BBCIran launches its first-ever direct strike on Israel: 300+ missiles and drones.·2024-02-16ReutersAlexei Navalny dies in Russian Arctic penal colony.·2024-01-26APICJ orders Israel to prevent genocidal acts in Gaza; genocide case proceeds.·2024-01-09ReutersHouthi attacks on Red Sea shipping force major carriers to reroute around Africa.·2023-12-12ReutersCOP28 ends with first-ever call for the world to 'transition away from fossil fuels.'·2023-11-15UN OCHAGaza death toll passes 11,000; UN warns of famine and collapse of medical system.·2023-10-07ReutersHamas attacks southern Israel; 1,195 killed and 251 hostages taken.·2023-09-08CopernicusEarth surpasses 1.5°C above pre-industrial averaged over 12 months for the first time.·2023-08-23ReutersYevgeny Prigozhin killed in a plane crash north of Moscow.·2023-08-08APMaui wildfires destroy historic Lahaina and kill at least 100.·2023-06-23FTWagner Group mutiny; Prigozhin's column marches on Moscow, then turns back.·2023-05-05WHOWHO declares the end of the COVID-19 global health emergency.·2023-03-22WMOAtmospheric CO₂ breaks 420 ppm for the first time in 4 million years.·2023-02-06ReutersEarthquake in Türkiye and Syria kills more than 59,000.·2022-11-30ReutersOpenAI launches ChatGPT to the public; mass-market generative AI begins.·2022-10-27ReutersElon Musk completes Twitter takeover; mass layoffs and policy reversals follow.·2022-09-16GuardianMahsa Amini dies in Iranian custody; women-led protests sweep the country.·2022-09-08BBCQueen Elizabeth II dies after 70 years on the throne.·2022-08-31ReutersPakistan floods displace 33 million; a third of the country underwater.·2022-06-24NYTUS Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade, ending the constitutional right to abortion.·2022-05-24NYTGunman kills 19 children and 2 teachers at Robb Elementary in Uvalde, Texas.·2022-03-09APRussian shelling of a Mariupol maternity hospital draws global condemnation.·2022-02-24BBCRussia launches full-scale invasion of Ukraine; largest land war in Europe since 1945.·2021-11-30NatureOmicron variant detected in southern Africa; spreads globally within weeks.·2021-10-31Carbon BriefIPCC: world on a 2.7°C warming track even if every Paris pledge is met.·2021-08-15ReutersTaliban enter Kabul; Afghan government collapses within hours of US withdrawal.·2021-07-09BBCWestern Canada heat dome kills 600 in days; Lytton burns to the ground.·2021-07-01BBCHong Kong's Apple Daily forced to shut as Beijing tightens national-security law.·2021-03-23FTContainer ship Ever Given blocks the Suez Canal for six days, halting global trade.·2021-02-15Texas TribuneTexas power grid collapses in winter storm; hundreds die in their homes.·2021-01-06ReutersPro-Trump mob storms the US Capitol to block certification of the election; five dead.·2020-12-31WHOGlobal COVID-19 deaths pass 1.8 million in the pandemic's first year.·2020-11-07APBiden defeats Trump; Trump refuses to concede the election.·2020-09-09SF ChronicleCalifornia wildfire smoke turns the San Francisco sky a dystopian orange.·2020-08-04Al JazeeraBeirut port explosion kills more than 200 and flattens half the city.·2020-05-25NYTGeorge Floyd killed by Minneapolis police; protests sweep cities worldwide.·2020-03-11BBCWHO declares COVID-19 a pandemic; global lockdowns begin.·2020-01-30ReutersWHO declares novel coronavirus a global health emergency.·
DYING·HUMANITY / PILLAR / ISOLATION & LONELINESS

WE ARE THE MOST CONNECTED PEOPLE
WHO EVER LIVED ALONE.

One in four adults globally reports frequent loneliness (Meta-Gallup 2023). The average American's count of close confidants has fallen from 2.94 in 1985 to 1.95 in 2022 (GSS). US 15-24-year-olds spend roughly a third as much in-person time with friends as they did in 2003 (ATUS). The UK has lost ~45% of its pubs since 1980 (BBPA); the US has lost about half its fraternal-order membership over the same window (Putnam, updated). Connection is everywhere; company isn't.

T −13years·182days·15hrs:00min:00sec
SEVERE· COMPOSITE 73/100
THE NUMBERS

Six figures behind the composite.

1 in 4
Adults globally reporting frequent loneliness
Meta-Gallup State of Social Connections 2023. Highest among under-30s in most rich-country data.
1.95
Average US adult's count of close confidants
GSS 2022. Was 2.94 in 1985. Share of Americans reporting zero confidants is now ~12% (was 3% in 1985).
28
%
US households consisting of one person
ACS 2023. Sweden 39%, Germany 41%. Stockholm and Munich exceed 50% in the urban core.
40
min
Daily in-person friend time, US 15-24-year-olds
ATUS. Was 150 min in 2003. The largest cohort-level collapse of in-person youth socialising on record.
45
%
UK pubs lost since 1980
BBPA. From 69,000 to 38,000 open public houses. The closures concentrate in non-urban places where the third-place infrastructure was already thin.
3
·
National governments that have designated loneliness a public-health issue
UK (2018), Japan (2021), US Surgeon General (2023). Policy recognition is high; effective scaled interventions are scarce.
COMPOSITE

One 0-100 score.

025456582100
73
Composite Index
Severe
CURRENT READING

Heuristic seed snapshot. Isolation stress sits firmly in the 'Severe' band. One in four adults globally reports frequent loneliness. Single-occupancy households are now ~28% of US households (~40% in some major European cities). The average American's close-confidants count has roughly halved since 1985. Adolescent in-person hangout time has collapsed; third-place infrastructure has been hollowing out for decades. The US Surgeon General, the UK government, and the Japanese government have all formally designated loneliness a public-health issue.

Severe· composite 73/100
TRAJECTORY

Over time.

FOUR US SERIES

Confidants, teen in-person time, single-person households, and UK pubs.

1960197119811992200320132024Avg US close cTeen daily in-US single-persUK open pubs (0-100 PER-SERIES NORMALISED
  • Avg US close confidants2.94 in 1985 → 1.95 in 2022
  • Teen daily in-person time (min)150 min in 2003 → 40 min in 2023
  • US single-person households (%)13% in 1960 → 28% in 2023
  • UK open pubs (thousands)69K in 1980 → 38K in 2024
SOURCE · GSS; ATUS; US Census; British Beer & Pub Association
AGE CURVE · US ADULTS · 2024

Loneliness is no longer an old-person problem.

Pew + Meta-Gallup data show the steepest band on the curve is 16-24-year-olds. The 'shut-in elder' picture that dominated the 1980s public-health imagination has been overtaken by an even larger isolation problem among the youngest adult cohort. The U-shape persists, but the left peak is now higher than the right.

10%20%30%40%50%39%16-2430%25-3424%35-4422%45-5421%55-6422%65-7428%75+
16-24Highest in any age band in recent surveys; the old 'loneliness peaks at 80' assumption no longer holds.
SOURCE · Pew Research; Meta-Gallup; Cigna Loneliness Index
FREQUENT LONELINESS BY COUNTRY

Where citizens feel most alone.

Share of adults saying they feel 'very' or 'fairly often' lonely. Türkiye and South Korea lead; the Netherlands and Sweden show that wealth and urbanisation alone don't cause it.

SORT
  • 🇹🇷TürkiyeMENA
    33%
  • 🇰🇷South KoreaAsia
    31%
  • 🇺🇸United StatesAmericas
    28%
  • 🇮🇹ItalyEurope
    27%
  • 🇧🇷BrazilAmericas
    27%
  • 🇲🇽MexicoAmericas
    26%
  • 🇫🇷FranceEurope
    25%
  • 🇬🇧United KingdomEurope
    24%
  • 🇯🇵JapanAsia
    24%
  • 🇩🇪GermanyEurope
    21%
  • 🇮🇳IndiaAsia
    18%
  • 🇸🇪SwedenEurope
    16%
  • 🇳🇱NetherlandsEurope
    14%
READINGTürkiye stands out as the highest at 33%. Highest in our sample; Meta-Gallup 2023.
SOURCE · Meta-Gallup State of Social Connections 2023; OECD Better Life Index
SIGNALS

What the score is measuring.

Frequent-loneliness prevalence
Share of adults reporting feeling frequently or fairly lonely.
weight 13% · sources: Meta-Gallup State of Social Connections, OECD Better Life Index
Meta-Gallup State of Social Connections 2023: ~24% of adults globally feel 'very' or 'fairly' lonely. Highest in young adults (under 30), not the elderly, in most rich-country data.
cit: Meta-Gallup 2023 · OECD
7.0
Single-occupancy households
Share of households consisting of one person.
weight 10% · sources: UN DESA Family Database, Eurostat, US Census ACS
US Census ACS 2023: 28% of US households are single-person; Sweden 39%, Germany 41%. In Stockholm and Munich the proportion exceeds 50% in the urban core.
cit: US Census ACS · Eurostat 2024
7.0
Close-confidants count
Average number of people the respondent could discuss important matters with.
weight 10% · sources: US General Social Survey (GSS), European Social Survey
US GSS: average number of confidants for personal matters fell from ~3 in 1985 to ~2 in 2024. Share of Americans reporting zero close confidants is ~12% (was 3% in 1985).
cit: GSS 1985-2024
8.0
In-person social contact
Average minutes per day spent face-to-face with non-household members.
weight 10% · sources: ATUS (US), EU Time Use Survey
ATUS: average US adult time spent face-to-face with non-household friends fell ~30% from 2003 to 2023. Adolescents fell ~70%.
cit: ATUS 2003-2023 · Atlantic 2024 analysis
8.0
Third-place decline
Rate of closure of pubs, churches, community centres, fraternal orders, civic clubs.
weight 9% · sources: Putnam Bowling Alone series, British Beer & Pub Assoc., Pew religion
UK lost ~25% of its pubs since 2000; US lost ~50% of fraternal-order membership since 1980; church attendance halved in many Western countries. Closures concentrate in non-urban places where the third-place infrastructure was already thin.
cit: BBPA · Putnam updates
7.0
Older-adult isolation
Share of 65+ adults living alone with weekly contact below threshold.
weight 10% · sources: AARP Loneliness in Older Adults, UK Campaign to End Loneliness, WHO
AARP 2023: ~40% of US adults 65+ live alone; ~33% report weekly contact below WHO-recommended minimum. Magnitudes similar across OECD.
cit: AARP 2023 · WHO 2024 commission
7.0
Adolescent in-person hangout time
Median hours per week US teens spend hanging out in-person with peers without parental supervision.
weight 9% · sources: Monitoring the Future, CDC YRBSS, Jonathan Haidt research
Monitoring the Future + ATUS: median US teen in-person unsupervised peer hangouts fell from ~3h/day in 1990 to ~30 min/day in 2020. Largest cohort-level collapse measured.
cit: MTF · Haidt 2024
9.0
Digital-for-physical substitution
Share of social interaction time that is screen-mediated rather than in-person.
weight 9% · sources: Pew Research, OECD
Pew + OECD: digital-mediated interaction is now the majority of social-contact time for under-30s in OECD economies. Not necessarily harmful at the margin, but consistent across surveys as substitution rather than supplement.
cit: Pew 2024 · OECD
8.0
Community-organisation participation
Share of adults active in any community organisation in the past 12 months.
weight 10% · sources: World Values Survey, Pew civic engagement
WVS Wave 7: only ~28% of US adults active in any community organisation in past year (was ~55% in 1970s per Putnam). Decline visible across most OECD economies.
cit: WVS 7 · Putnam
7.0
Public-health recognition
Number of national governments that have formally designated loneliness a public-health issue.
weight 10% · sources: UK Minister for Loneliness; US Surgeon General Advisory; Japan loneliness office
UK appointed Minister for Loneliness in 2018; Japan followed in 2021; US Surgeon General issued formal advisory in 2023. Policy attention is high; effective interventions are scarce.
cit: UK Govt 2018 · JP Govt 2021 · US Surgeon General 2023
5.0
PERSPECTIVES

Several traditions reading the same data.

On the question of

Why is the most-connected generation also the most alone?

Diagnosis & mechanism
Western scientific
Public-health framing

Loneliness shows mortality-risk magnitudes comparable to smoking 15 cigarettes per day. Treating it as a clinical and policy issue, like obesity or sleep loss, is overdue. The US Surgeon General, the UK government, and Japan all now formally treat it as such. Interventions exist; the political will to scale them does not.

We are facing an epidemic of loneliness and isolation.

US Surgeon General, Our Epidemic of Loneliness and Isolation (2023)
Western scientific
Putnam / social-capital

Civic infrastructure (clubs, churches, leagues, fraternal orders, PTAs) was a load-bearing element of mid-20th-century life that has been allowed to decay. The decay is faster in lower-income, lower-education communities. The civic recession and the political recession have the same shape because they have the same cause.

Robert Putnam, Bowling Alone; The Upswing (2020)
Critical
Tech-substitution thesis

Smartphones + social platforms substitute screen-mediated weak ties for in-person strong ties. The substitution accelerated after 2012 and the adolescent measures suggest it is approaching a floor. The substitution is not necessarily destructive at the margin, but it has happened at a scale and pace incompatible with the wellbeing patterns the data shows.

Sherry Turkle, Reclaiming Conversation; Jean Twenge, Generations
Indigenous
Belonging / place-based

Many Indigenous frameworks treat isolation as a symptom of severed relationships: to land, to kin, to ancestors, to the more-than-human world. The Western individual-focused frame asks 'how do we cure isolated individuals'; this frame asks 'how do we repair the relational fabric they fell out of'.

Robin Wall Kimmerer, Braiding Sweetgrass; Joseph P. Gone
Eastern contemplative
Eastern collectivist tradition

Japan and South Korea show how collectivist family structures do not automatically protect against isolation. Even where the family unit remains strong on paper, the elder hikikomori and shut-in phenomena have grown for decades. The lesson: cultural collectivism is not interchangeable with active community participation.

Saito Tamaki, Hikikomori; OECD East Asia social-cohesion analyses
Religious
Religious-community / Carney

Where churches and equivalent congregations have closed, the social infrastructure they provided (childcare, mutual aid, weekly contact obligations across ages) has not been replaced. Re-investment in congregations and equivalent structures is treated as a primary intervention by traditions that already practice it.

Tim Carney, Alienated America; Mary Eberstadt, How the West Really Lost God
Critical
Urbanist / built-environment

Suburban-sprawl-by-default zoning destroyed the proximity that made third places economically viable. The car commute is structurally isolating. Walkable cities, mixed-use blocks, density that puts you in casual contact with neighbours: built-environment fixes deliver more loneliness reduction per dollar than most therapeutic ones.

Jane Jacobs; Jeff Speck, Walkable City; Strong Towns
On the question of

Of the interventions, which reduce isolation?

What helps
Western scientific
Social prescribing

GPs refer patients to community choirs, walking groups, library programmes. UK NHS has scaled this; preliminary evidence shows reduced loneliness scores and reduced primary-care reattendance. Replicable elsewhere with modest investment.

NHS Universal Personalised Care; College of Medicine
Western scientific
Phone-free childhood

Restoring adolescent in-person time requires removing the device that occupies it. Phone-free schools, no smartphones before high school, age limits on social media. Pre-2010 free-range play was a relational infrastructure that the current generation has not been given.

Jonathan Haidt, The Anxious Generation; Australian under-16 social media ban (2025)
Critical
Third-place revival

Subsidise pubs, cafés, libraries, community centres, places of worship as civic infrastructure. The economic arguments for this are weak in market terms; the social-return-on-investment evidence is strong.

Eric Klinenberg, Palaces for the People; UK Power to Change
Critical
Urbanism / walkable cities

Zone for proximity. The single largest demographic determinant of loneliness scores is whether daily errands require a car. Re-permit accessory dwellings, mixed-use ground floors, narrower streets, shorter blocks.

Strong Towns; Jeff Speck
Lived experience
Elder-care / age-friendly

From the practitioners: the highest-leverage intervention is weekly volunteer-driven contact for socially-isolated older adults. Programs like Re-engage (UK), AARP Connect2Affect (US), Tonari Kinjo (Japan) deliver measurable wellbeing improvements at low cost.

Re-engage; AARP; WHO Age-friendly Cities
ISOLATION × MENTAL HEALTH

Where loneliness runs high, depression does too.

Loneliness and clinical depression / anxiety move together across countries. Türkiye and South Korea anchor the high corner; the Netherlands and Sweden anchor the low corner. The relationship is causal in both directions: loneliness raises depression risk, and depression in turn intensifies isolation.

12%18%24%29%35%9.1%12%15%17%20%ADULTS REPORTING FREQUENT LONELINESSPAST-YEAR DEPRESSION / ANXIETY PREVALENCETürkiyeSouth KoreaUnited StatesItalyBrazilFranceUnited KingdomJapanGermanyIndiaSwedenNetherlands
READINGTrend line shows a strong positive correlation (r² = 0.94).
SOURCE · X: Meta-Gallup State of Social Connections 2023 · Y: Lancet Global Burden of Disease 2024; WHO Mental Health Atlas
INTERVENTIONS

What is being tried, and where.

INTERVENTIONS · WHAT HAS BEEN TRIED

Six interventions, at three policy levels.

Government recognition (loneliness ministers), clinical-pathway changes (social prescribing), regulatory limits (under-16 social-media bans), third-place subsidy. Each carries different evidence weight; each is at a different scale.

  1. AUSTRALIA2025

    Under-16 social media ban

    First national-level statutory age limit on major social-media platforms. Targets the documented adolescent isolation curve.

    EVIDENCEToo early for clean evidence; precedent triggered similar EU member-state proposals.
  2. UNITED STATES2023

    Surgeon General Advisory

    Our Epidemic of Loneliness and Isolation formal advisory. Six-pillar national strategy. No funded national programme attached.

    EVIDENCEAdvisory only; municipal pickups (Boston, LA county) show some traction.
  3. JAPAN2021

    Loneliness office under Cabinet

    Created in response to pandemic-period suicide increases, particularly among women. Coordinates municipal initiatives, hotlines, hikikomori support.

    EVIDENCEImplementation early; cross-ministry coordination judged effective on hotline reach.
  4. SWEDEN2020

    'Folkets Hus' renewal funding

    State-municipal funding to renew the historic 'People's Houses' community-centre network: a classic Nordic third-place model.

    EVIDENCELocal rather than national-survey; visitor-count growth where renewal completed.
  5. UNITED KINGDOM · NHS2019

    Social prescribing at scale

    GPs refer patients to community choirs, walking groups, library programmes, gardening, befriending. NHS Universal Personalised Care framework.

    EVIDENCEStrong. Reduced primary-care reattendance and improved loneliness self-report in trials. Now ~1M referrals per year.
  6. UNITED KINGDOM2018

    World's first loneliness minister

    Tracey Crouch appointed. Built into the Office for Civil Society, ~£23M strategy. Modest measurable effects but precedent-setting at scale.

    EVIDENCEMixed. Funding modest relative to need. Strategy framework now adopted by other countries.
TRUST

Sources, weights, and code are open.

Data provenance

Where every number comes from

The composite index is computed from the signals listed on this page, each backed by one or more named sources. Where the source publishes a public dataset or feed it is linked below; where a signal involves qualitative judgement, the LLM-assisted pass is explicitly marked on the signal card.

  • ·AARP Loneliness in Older Adults
  • ·ATUS (US)
  • ·British Beer & Pub Assoc.
  • ·CDC YRBSS
  • ·EU Time Use Survey
  • ·European Social Survey
  • ·Eurostat
  • ·Jonathan Haidt research
  • ·Meta-Gallup State of Social Connections
  • ·Monitoring the Future
  • ·OECD
  • ·OECD Better Life Index
  • ·Pew Research
  • ·Pew civic engagement
  • ·Pew religion
  • ·Putnam Bowling Alone series
  • ·UK Campaign to End Loneliness
  • ·UK Minister for Loneliness; US Surgeon General Advisory; Japan loneliness office
  • ·UN DESA Family Database
  • ·US Census ACS
  • ·US General Social Survey (GSS)
  • ·WHO
  • ·World Values Survey
Audit trail

Everything is versioned

  • Every hourly snapshot is committed to git with a message naming the signals that moved.
  • A daily snapshot is archived to data/history-current/ for the calibration log.
  • Raw scraped article lists are written to data/raw/ so a score is reproducible from its input bundle.
  • Signal definitions, weights, and seeded scores all live in plain JSON or TypeScript; anyone can open a PR challenging a value and explain why.
What this is NOT
Not a prediction.
The composite index is descriptive. Subjective estimates are published openly so the track record becomes visible, not because the author believes them precisely calibrated today.
Not journalism.
Sources are listed but this is not original reporting. If the inputs feeding the LLM are wrong, the score is wrong. Triangulate with primary reporting before drawing conclusions.
Not impartial.
Signal definitions, weights, and historical scores reflect the author's reading. Bias is unavoidable in this kind of synthesis; the mitigation is that it's all explicit and challengeable signal by signal.
METHODOLOGY

How this pillar is scored.

Methodology & limits

Ten signals, weighted into a 0-100 score. Half of them are individual-experience measures (loneliness rates, close-confidant counts, sleep displacement, in-person time). The other half are structural (single-occupancy households, third-place decline, civic-organisation participation, formal policy recognition).

Adolescent in-person time gets a heavy weight because the curve is the steepest cohort-level behavioural change of the last twenty years. The knock-on effects in mental health, polarisation, and educational outcomes are well documented.

Two adjacent pillars share data with this one: mental health (the same loneliness and sleep panels feed both diagnoses) and tech & attention (the digital substitution that ate the in-person hours is measured there).

Frequent-loneliness prevalence
w 13%
Share of adults reporting feeling frequently or fairly lonely.
sources: Meta-Gallup State of Social Connections, OECD Better Life Index
Single-occupancy households
w 10%
Share of households consisting of one person.
sources: UN DESA Family Database, Eurostat, US Census ACS
Close-confidants count
w 10%
Average number of people the respondent could discuss important matters with.
sources: US General Social Survey (GSS), European Social Survey
In-person social contact
w 10%
Average minutes per day spent face-to-face with non-household members.
sources: ATUS (US), EU Time Use Survey
Third-place decline
w 9%
Rate of closure of pubs, churches, community centres, fraternal orders, civic clubs.
sources: Putnam Bowling Alone series, British Beer & Pub Assoc., Pew religion
Older-adult isolation
w 10%
Share of 65+ adults living alone with weekly contact below threshold.
sources: AARP Loneliness in Older Adults, UK Campaign to End Loneliness, WHO
Adolescent in-person hangout time
w 9%
Median hours per week US teens spend hanging out in-person with peers without parental supervision.
sources: Monitoring the Future, CDC YRBSS, Jonathan Haidt research
Digital-for-physical substitution
w 9%
Share of social interaction time that is screen-mediated rather than in-person.
sources: Pew Research, OECD
Community-organisation participation
w 10%
Share of adults active in any community organisation in the past 12 months.
sources: World Values Survey, Pew civic engagement
Public-health recognition
w 10%
Number of national governments that have formally designated loneliness a public-health issue.
sources: UK Minister for Loneliness; US Surgeon General Advisory; Japan loneliness office
CROSS-REFERENCES · KEEP READING