OF EVERY MAMMAL ON EARTH, 96% IS US
OR WHAT WE EAT.
We are not approaching the sixth mass extinction. We are in it. The Living Planet Index records a 73% average decline in monitored vertebrate populations since 1970. IUCN: ~46,000 species are now threatened with extinction. Bar-On et al. quantified the biomass distribution: humans and our livestock make up ~96% of mammalian biomass; wild mammals are ~4%. Six of nine planetary boundaries are now breached. This is not what a healthy biosphere looks like; it is what a biosphere looks like shortly before its support functions begin to fail.
Six figures behind the composite.
One 0-100 score.
Heuristic seed snapshot. Ecosystems stress sits at the upper end of the 'Catastrophic' band. The Living Planet Index shows a 73% average decline in monitored vertebrate populations since 1970. The IUCN Red List has ~46,000 species threatened with extinction (out of ~166,000 assessed). Bar-On et al. (2018): of the planet's mammal biomass, ~96% is now humans and our livestock; wild mammals are ~4%. Roughly 6 of 9 planetary boundaries are now judged breached (Richardson et al. 2023). Coral reefs are experiencing annual mass bleaching at every 1.5°C+ year, i.e. now. We are not approaching the sixth mass extinction. We are in it.
Over time.
Living Planet Index, IUCN threatened share, and coral bleaching exposure.
- Living Planet Index (1970 = 1.0)WWF / ZSL. -73% by 2020.
- IUCN threatened species share (%)13% in 2000 → 28% in 2024.
- Coral area exposed to bleaching heat (%)30% in 2015 → 77% in 2024.
Steepest where biodiversity was greatest.
Regional LPI declines 1970-2020. Latin America/Caribbean lost 95% of monitored populations; freshwater systems globally lost 85%. North America and Europe look 'better' because most of their losses predate 1970.
- Latin America & Caribbeanbiome95%
- Freshwaterbiome85%
- Africabiome76%
- Asia-Pacificbiome60%
- North Americabiome39%
- Europe & C. Asiabiome35%
What the score is measuring.
Several traditions reading the same data.
Are we causing a sixth mass extinction, and what does that actually mean?
The current rate of vertebrate extinction is 100-1000x the long-run background rate. This is the definitional threshold for a mass-extinction event. Five previous mass extinctions all happened over geological timescales; the current one is happening over a human lifetime. The scale and speed are without precedent in the fossil record.
“Earth is now experiencing its sixth mass extinction, and it is caused by a single species.”
Indigenous traditions don't separate the human from the non-human, and don't separate the ecological from the moral. The collapse the data describes is, in this frame, a rupture of relationships, relationships that human survival has always depended on, and that many traditions have refused to forget. Indigenous-managed land continues to outperform every other land-tenure category on biodiversity outcomes.
“All flourishing is mutual. So is all collapse.”
The factory-farming system kills ~92 billion land animals per year and ~1-2 trillion fish, the vast majority in conditions of intense confinement and suffering. The biodiversity-loss story is genuinely real; it is also coupled to a much larger moral story about the lives that are not lost to extinction but are spent in suffering at industrial scale.
Across multiple traditions: creation is held in trust. Genesis 2 'dominion-as-stewardship'; the Quranic notion of khalifa (vicegerency); the Buddhist principle of ahimsa toward all sentient beings; Hindu concept of vasudhaiva kutumbakam ('the world is one family'). The traditions converge on a duty of care that the current economic system has structurally rejected.
Non-human life has intrinsic value independent of human use. The biodiversity-loss frame is morally inadequate if it casts the problem as 'how we lose ecosystem services we needed'. The problem is what we are doing to the living world on its own terms. This perspective is more present in continental philosophy and certain religious traditions than in Anglosphere economics.
Calling this the 'Anthropocene' obscures who actually did it. The drivers of ecological collapse are not 'humans' as such; they are a small set of historically-specific economic relations: colonialism, fossil capitalism, extractivism, operating on a planetary scale. Naming it more precisely changes the responsibility distribution.
Feeding 8 billion people requires industrial agriculture. Many of the dietary substitutions environmentalists advocate are politically and economically unrealistic at scale. Sustainable intensification, more output per hectare with less environmental load, is more tractable than de-industrialisation. Aspirations must meet what actually feeds people.
Where humans step back, ecosystems recover faster than most models predicted. The European bison, beaver, white-tailed eagle, otter, large carnivore returns across Europe show what's possible. Rewilding is the most under-rated intervention in the toolkit: low cost, high return, politically tractable in many contexts.
If 6 of 9 planetary boundaries are crossed, what does that actually imply for the future?
Each boundary breach raises the probability of catastrophic, irreversible state-shifts. Six breaches are not six separate problems; they interact and amplify. Crossing them sequentially erodes the regulatory mechanisms that kept the Holocene stable for the entire span of agricultural civilisation. The question is no longer 'will Earth-system stability survive'; it is 'what comes after, and on what timescale'.
The Living Planet Index continuing on trend implies the loss of ecosystem-service support: pollination, nutrient cycling, freshwater purification, climate regulation, disease control. Even staying conservative on the science, the next few decades will see the first measurable ecosystem-services failures at continental scale. The cost in human welfare will be enormous.
Biospheric collapse is not directly an extinction-level event for Homo sapiens; civilisation has degrees of resilience the rest of the biosphere lacks. But the cascading consequences (resource conflict, mass migration, food-system disruption, pandemic emergence) drive the upper-tail risks of civilisational disruption. Treating ecological collapse as separate from existential risk is a category error.
Most of what is being lost cannot be measured by the language available. The loss of relationship with non-human life is itself the loss. Cultures that hold this relationship as constitutive are speaking a language Western policy mostly cannot hear. The remedy is also constitutive: re-attention to what is being given up.
Many of the trajectories are not yet locked in. Forest cover has recovered in parts of Europe, North America, China. Large-vertebrate populations have rebounded under protection in specific cases. Marine fisheries with serious enforcement have recovered. The collapse is real; the recovery levers also work, and the cost-benefit case for using them is overwhelming.
Of every mammal on Earth, 96% is us or what we eat.
Bar-On et al. assembled the first comprehensive estimate of biomass distribution across kingdoms. The result for mammals is one of the starkest single numbers in environmental science: wild mammals, from elephants to whales to bats to mice, make up 4% of the mammalian biomass. The other 96% is humans (~36%) and our livestock (~60%). Birds are nearly as extreme.
- 60%Livestock (cattle, pigs, sheep, goats, etc.)~0.10 Gt C. Bovines alone constitute more biomass than all wild mammals combined by ~5x.
- 36%Humans~0.06 Gt C. We constitute more mammal biomass than every wild mammal species on Earth combined.
- 4%Wild mammals~0.007 Gt C. From elephants to whales to bats to mice. 4% of what was once nearly 100%.
- 70%Poultry (mostly chickens)~0.005 Gt C. Chickens alone outnumber wild birds ~3:1.
- 30%Wild birds~0.002 Gt C.
- 100%Before agriculture (~10,000 BCE)Reference baseline. Reconstructed; significant uncertainty.
- 15%Today~85% reduction over 10,000 years; the steepest declines came in the past 200 years.
Five times before. The sixth is happening at one hundred to one thousand times the background rate.
The five previous mass extinctions are recognised by the Geological Time Scale. Each lost 70-96% of species over hundreds of thousands to millions of years. We have lost ~1% of vertebrate species so far in the current event, but the rate at which we are losing them is 100-1000x the long-run background. Projected forward, the cumulative loss converges on prior mass-extinction magnitudes within a few hundred years.
- Ordovician–Silurian444 Mya
Glaciation, sea-level fall.
86%species lost - Late Devonian372 Mya
Anoxic events, volcanism.
75%species lost - Permian–Triassic252 Mya
Siberian Traps volcanism; 'The Great Dying'.
96%species lost - Triassic–Jurassic201 Mya
Volcanism, climate change.
80%species lost - Cretaceous–Paleogene66 Mya
Chicxulub asteroid; non-avian dinosaurs lost.
76%species lost - Holocene / Anthropocene · ongoing10K yrs ago
Habitat loss, climate change, invasive species, overexploitation: driven by humans.
Vertebrate extinction rate now running at 100-1000x background. At current trajectory, projected species loss matches prior mass-extinction magnitudes within centuries.
1%species lost
Six of nine planetary boundaries are now breached.
Of the nine planetary boundaries, six are now judged to be in the high-risk zone (Richardson et al. 2023). Ocean acidification is right at the threshold and likely to cross it within the decade. Only three remain comfortably within their safe operating space.
Atmospheric CO₂ at 425 ppm vs ~350 ppm safe-operating-space ceiling. Energy imbalance crossed by ~1.5 W/m².
Extinction rate at 100-1000x background. Functional integrity of biosphere significantly degraded across all major biomes.
Forest cover at ~60% of original; tropical forest at ~50%. Boreal and temperate forests stable or recovering in some regions; tropical loss accelerating.
Industrial nitrogen and phosphorus fixation now dwarf natural cycles. Dead zones in coastal oceans expanding.
Green-water (soil moisture) component breaches safe range under current trajectories. Blue-water (rivers, lakes, aquifers) still within range in aggregate but stressed regionally.
Plastics, persistent organic pollutants, manufactured nano-materials, antibiotics in the environment. Cannot be 'returned to safe range', only stabilised at higher levels.
Surface ocean pH ~8.05 vs 8.2 pre-industrial. Calcification thresholds for most shellfish and reef-builders breached at projected 2030 levels.
The success case. Montreal Protocol phased out CFCs; ozone layer healing at expected rate. Proof that planetary-scale coordination is possible when it is conceptually clean and politically narrow.
Within safe operating space at global average; regional hotspots (South Asia, Africa) significantly degraded.
The ones we have a date for. The ones we wrote down.
Most extinctions are silent: species that vanished before they were named, before they were photographed, before anyone counted them. These thirteen are the ones we have a year for. The dodo (1681) is the cliché. The Bramble Cay melomys (2019) is the first documented mammal extinction attributed directly to sea-level rise. The list grows; the entries between get shorter and shorter.
- 1681DodoMauritius
Introduced predators, hunting
- 1768Steller's sea cowBering Sea
Hunting; species lost within ~30 years of European contact
- 1844Great aukNorth Atlantic
Hunting for feathers
- 1883QuaggaSouth Africa
Hunting (subspecies of plains zebra)
- 1914Passenger pigeonNorth America
Hunting: population went from billions to extinct in 100 years
- 1936Thylacine (Tasmanian tiger)Tasmania
Government bounty, agricultural displacement
- 1962Caribbean monk sealCaribbean
Hunting
- 1990Golden toadCosta Rica cloud forest
Climate change + chytrid fungus
- 2000Pyrenean ibexPyrenees
Hunting
- 2006Baiji (Yangtze dolphin)China
Industrial fishing, pollution, dam construction
- 2018Spix's macaw (wild)Brazil
Habitat loss, illegal trade. Captive breeding ongoing.
- 2019Bramble Cay melomysAustralia · Torres Strait
First documented mammal extinction from sea-level rise
- 2024Dwarf hutia (presumed)Cuba
Habitat loss; declared extinct after 50+ years no records
What it does to everything else.
FOODAbout 75% of food crops depend on insect pollination (IPBES 2016). Insect biomass is down ~76% in long-term protected-area studies (Hallmann et al. 2017). Pollination-deficit yield losses are already measured in apples, pears, blueberries, and almonds.
WATERFreshwater populations are down 85% since 1970 (WWF LPI 2024). Wetlands have lost a third of their area in the same window (Ramsar Wetlands Outlook). Aquifer depletion is now the dominant freshwater story in India, the US Midwest, North China, and the Middle East.
CLIMATEForests and oceans together absorb about half of human CO₂ emissions every year (Global Carbon Project 2024). Both sinks are weakening: the Amazon has flipped to a net source in some years (Gatti et al. 2021); oceans warm, stratify, and lose capacity. Most climate trajectories assume healthy sinks.
DISEASEAbout 75% of new infectious diseases in humans are zoonotic (UNEP / ILRI 2020). Habitat loss and factory-farm proximity to wild populations is the dominant pipeline. SARS, MERS, Ebola, H5N1, COVID-19, Mpox: all of them sit on this story.
SOILTopsoil is being lost at 10-40x the rate it forms (FAO 2015). The FAO estimated the world has roughly 60 harvests left at current degradation rates. Soil collapse is invisible until it isn't.
RELATIONALSome of what is being lost is not measurable in calories or kilowatts. A child born now will encounter perhaps a tenth of the wildness their great-grandparents knew. This sits closer to the meaning pillar than to the food one, but it is not separate from either.
None of this is recovery-proof. Forest cover has rebounded in parts of Europe and China. Large vertebrates have rebounded under protection. Marine fisheries with serious enforcement have rebounded. The collapse is real and the recovery levers also work. The choice is current and the cost-benefit case for using them is overwhelming, but the window in which the levers exist is finite.
Sources, weights, and code are open.
Where every number comes from
The composite index is computed from the signals listed on this page, each backed by one or more named sources. Where the source publishes a public dataset or feed it is linked below; where a signal involves qualitative judgement, the LLM-assisted pass is explicitly marked on the signal card.
- ·Bar-On et al. PNAS 2018
- ·Ceballos et al. PNAS 2017/2024
- ·FAO FRA
- ·FAO State of World Fisheries 2024
- ·FAOSTAT 2024
- ·Global Forest Watch 2024
- ·Hallmann et al. PLoS ONE 2017 (Krefeld)
- ·ICRI Global Coral Bleaching Report 2024
- ·IUCN Red List 2024 update
- ·NOAA Coral Reef Watch
- ·Our World in Data; Sentience Institute
- ·Pimm et al. Science 2014
- ·Ramsar Wetlands Outlook
- ·Richardson et al. Science Advances 2023
- ·WWF Living Planet Report 2024
- ·Wagner et al. PNAS 2021
- ·Zoological Society of London
Everything is versioned
- → Every hourly snapshot is committed to git with a message naming the signals that moved.
- → A daily snapshot is archived to
data/history-current/for the calibration log. - → Raw scraped article lists are written to
data/raw/so a score is reproducible from its input bundle. - → Signal definitions, weights, and seeded scores all live in plain JSON or TypeScript; anyone can open a PR challenging a value and explain why.
How this pillar is scored.
Methodology & limits
Ten signals, weighted into a 0-100 score: the Living Planet Index, IUCN threatened-species share, current-vs-background extinction rate, insect-biomass collapse, marine-stock overexploitation, habitat loss, the human/livestock/wild biomass distribution, factory-farm scale, coral bleaching frequency, and the planetary-boundaries count.
The biomass-distribution signal is scored as catastrophic on its own merits. Most of the other signals here vary across decades. That one is, right now, structural; it will not reverse without changes well outside the current policy window.
Three other pillars touch this one in the data, not just in framing. Climate: six of nine planetary boundaries directly involve climate-system state. Inequality: extractivism is the inequality story applied to land. War: resource conflict and forced migration are downstream of ecological collapse.