dying·humanity
EVIDENCE LIVE FEED
2026-05-20Carbon Brief12-month global temperature anomaly stays above 1.55°C for the third consecutive year.·2026-02-05FASNew START Treaty officially expires with no successor agreement; nuclear-arms-control architecture collapses.·2025-12-04ReutersEuropean far-right gains in multiple national elections; centrist coalitions struggle to form.·2025-11-12ReutersWhite-collar AI layoffs accelerate across legal, marketing, and customer-support sectors.·2025-10-30WHOWHO: adolescent mental-health diagnoses up sharply versus pre-pandemic baseline.·2025-09-15LancetLancet study: indirect death toll from Gaza war likely exceeds 186,000.·2025-07-22CopernicusEurope shatters multiple national heat records in July heatwave; 50°C hit in parts of the south.·2025-06-22CNNUS bombs Iranian nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan during '12-day war.'·2025-06-13ReutersIsrael launches large-scale strikes on Iranian nuclear and command targets.·2025-04-30BBCIndia and Pakistan exchange strikes after Pahalgam attack in Kashmir.·2025-04-02ReutersTrump announces sweeping 'reciprocal' tariffs; global markets sell off hard.·2025-02-06ReutersTrump pauses most USAID funding; foreign-aid programs and partners scramble.·2025-01-20ReutersTrump returns to the White House; day-one executive orders on tariffs, deportations, climate, and TikTok.·2024-12-08ReutersBashar al-Assad regime falls in Syria after 53 years; rebels enter Damascus.·2024-11-21Al JazeeraICC issues arrest warrant for Netanyahu over Gaza war crimes allegations.·2024-11-05APDonald Trump wins second term; Republicans take both chambers of Congress.·2024-09-27ReutersIsraeli airstrike kills Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut.·2024-09-17ReutersCoordinated pager attacks in Lebanon kill dozens and wound thousands attributed to Hezbollah.·2026-05-20Carbon Brief12-month global temperature anomaly stays above 1.55°C for the third consecutive year.·2026-02-05FASNew START Treaty officially expires with no successor agreement; nuclear-arms-control architecture collapses.·2025-12-04ReutersEuropean far-right gains in multiple national elections; centrist coalitions struggle to form.·2025-11-12ReutersWhite-collar AI layoffs accelerate across legal, marketing, and customer-support sectors.·2025-10-30WHOWHO: adolescent mental-health diagnoses up sharply versus pre-pandemic baseline.·2025-09-15LancetLancet study: indirect death toll from Gaza war likely exceeds 186,000.·2025-07-22CopernicusEurope shatters multiple national heat records in July heatwave; 50°C hit in parts of the south.·2025-06-22CNNUS bombs Iranian nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan during '12-day war.'·2025-06-13ReutersIsrael launches large-scale strikes on Iranian nuclear and command targets.·2025-04-30BBCIndia and Pakistan exchange strikes after Pahalgam attack in Kashmir.·2025-04-02ReutersTrump announces sweeping 'reciprocal' tariffs; global markets sell off hard.·2025-02-06ReutersTrump pauses most USAID funding; foreign-aid programs and partners scramble.·2025-01-20ReutersTrump returns to the White House; day-one executive orders on tariffs, deportations, climate, and TikTok.·2024-12-08ReutersBashar al-Assad regime falls in Syria after 53 years; rebels enter Damascus.·2024-11-21Al JazeeraICC issues arrest warrant for Netanyahu over Gaza war crimes allegations.·2024-11-05APDonald Trump wins second term; Republicans take both chambers of Congress.·2024-09-27ReutersIsraeli airstrike kills Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut.·2024-09-17ReutersCoordinated pager attacks in Lebanon kill dozens and wound thousands attributed to Hezbollah.·
2024-08-24FTPavel Durov arrested in France; Telegram free-speech and crime debate erupts.·2024-08-04ReutersOpenAI o1 'reasoning' model debuts; cost of intelligent compute keeps falling.·2024-07-13ReutersTrump shot at Pennsylvania rally; survives.·2024-05-30ReutersDonald Trump becomes first US former president convicted of a felony.·2024-04-13BBCIran launches its first-ever direct strike on Israel: 300+ missiles and drones.·2024-02-16ReutersAlexei Navalny dies in Russian Arctic penal colony.·2024-01-26APICJ orders Israel to prevent genocidal acts in Gaza; genocide case proceeds.·2024-01-09ReutersHouthi attacks on Red Sea shipping force major carriers to reroute around Africa.·2023-12-12ReutersCOP28 ends with first-ever call for the world to 'transition away from fossil fuels.'·2023-11-15UN OCHAGaza death toll passes 11,000; UN warns of famine and collapse of medical system.·2023-10-07ReutersHamas attacks southern Israel; 1,195 killed and 251 hostages taken.·2023-09-08CopernicusEarth surpasses 1.5°C above pre-industrial averaged over 12 months for the first time.·2023-08-23ReutersYevgeny Prigozhin killed in a plane crash north of Moscow.·2023-08-08APMaui wildfires destroy historic Lahaina and kill at least 100.·2023-06-23FTWagner Group mutiny; Prigozhin's column marches on Moscow, then turns back.·2023-05-05WHOWHO declares the end of the COVID-19 global health emergency.·2023-03-22WMOAtmospheric CO₂ breaks 420 ppm for the first time in 4 million years.·2023-02-06ReutersEarthquake in Türkiye and Syria kills more than 59,000.·2022-11-30ReutersOpenAI launches ChatGPT to the public; mass-market generative AI begins.·2022-10-27ReutersElon Musk completes Twitter takeover; mass layoffs and policy reversals follow.·2024-08-24FTPavel Durov arrested in France; Telegram free-speech and crime debate erupts.·2024-08-04ReutersOpenAI o1 'reasoning' model debuts; cost of intelligent compute keeps falling.·2024-07-13ReutersTrump shot at Pennsylvania rally; survives.·2024-05-30ReutersDonald Trump becomes first US former president convicted of a felony.·2024-04-13BBCIran launches its first-ever direct strike on Israel: 300+ missiles and drones.·2024-02-16ReutersAlexei Navalny dies in Russian Arctic penal colony.·2024-01-26APICJ orders Israel to prevent genocidal acts in Gaza; genocide case proceeds.·2024-01-09ReutersHouthi attacks on Red Sea shipping force major carriers to reroute around Africa.·2023-12-12ReutersCOP28 ends with first-ever call for the world to 'transition away from fossil fuels.'·2023-11-15UN OCHAGaza death toll passes 11,000; UN warns of famine and collapse of medical system.·2023-10-07ReutersHamas attacks southern Israel; 1,195 killed and 251 hostages taken.·2023-09-08CopernicusEarth surpasses 1.5°C above pre-industrial averaged over 12 months for the first time.·2023-08-23ReutersYevgeny Prigozhin killed in a plane crash north of Moscow.·2023-08-08APMaui wildfires destroy historic Lahaina and kill at least 100.·2023-06-23FTWagner Group mutiny; Prigozhin's column marches on Moscow, then turns back.·2023-05-05WHOWHO declares the end of the COVID-19 global health emergency.·2023-03-22WMOAtmospheric CO₂ breaks 420 ppm for the first time in 4 million years.·2023-02-06ReutersEarthquake in Türkiye and Syria kills more than 59,000.·2022-11-30ReutersOpenAI launches ChatGPT to the public; mass-market generative AI begins.·2022-10-27ReutersElon Musk completes Twitter takeover; mass layoffs and policy reversals follow.·
2026-05-20Carbon Brief12-month global temperature anomaly stays above 1.55°C for the third consecutive year.·2026-02-05FASNew START Treaty officially expires with no successor agreement; nuclear-arms-control architecture collapses.·2025-12-04ReutersEuropean far-right gains in multiple national elections; centrist coalitions struggle to form.·2025-11-12ReutersWhite-collar AI layoffs accelerate across legal, marketing, and customer-support sectors.·2025-10-30WHOWHO: adolescent mental-health diagnoses up sharply versus pre-pandemic baseline.·2025-09-15LancetLancet study: indirect death toll from Gaza war likely exceeds 186,000.·2025-07-22CopernicusEurope shatters multiple national heat records in July heatwave; 50°C hit in parts of the south.·2025-06-22CNNUS bombs Iranian nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan during '12-day war.'·2025-06-13ReutersIsrael launches large-scale strikes on Iranian nuclear and command targets.·2025-04-30BBCIndia and Pakistan exchange strikes after Pahalgam attack in Kashmir.·2025-04-02ReutersTrump announces sweeping 'reciprocal' tariffs; global markets sell off hard.·2025-02-06ReutersTrump pauses most USAID funding; foreign-aid programs and partners scramble.·2025-01-20ReutersTrump returns to the White House; day-one executive orders on tariffs, deportations, climate, and TikTok.·2024-12-08ReutersBashar al-Assad regime falls in Syria after 53 years; rebels enter Damascus.·2024-11-21Al JazeeraICC issues arrest warrant for Netanyahu over Gaza war crimes allegations.·2024-11-05APDonald Trump wins second term; Republicans take both chambers of Congress.·2024-09-27ReutersIsraeli airstrike kills Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut.·2024-09-17ReutersCoordinated pager attacks in Lebanon kill dozens and wound thousands attributed to Hezbollah.·2024-08-24FTPavel Durov arrested in France; Telegram free-speech and crime debate erupts.·2024-08-04ReutersOpenAI o1 'reasoning' model debuts; cost of intelligent compute keeps falling.·2024-07-13ReutersTrump shot at Pennsylvania rally; survives.·2024-05-30ReutersDonald Trump becomes first US former president convicted of a felony.·2024-04-13BBCIran launches its first-ever direct strike on Israel: 300+ missiles and drones.·2024-02-16ReutersAlexei Navalny dies in Russian Arctic penal colony.·2024-01-26APICJ orders Israel to prevent genocidal acts in Gaza; genocide case proceeds.·2024-01-09ReutersHouthi attacks on Red Sea shipping force major carriers to reroute around Africa.·2023-12-12ReutersCOP28 ends with first-ever call for the world to 'transition away from fossil fuels.'·2023-11-15UN OCHAGaza death toll passes 11,000; UN warns of famine and collapse of medical system.·2023-10-07ReutersHamas attacks southern Israel; 1,195 killed and 251 hostages taken.·2023-09-08CopernicusEarth surpasses 1.5°C above pre-industrial averaged over 12 months for the first time.·2023-08-23ReutersYevgeny Prigozhin killed in a plane crash north of Moscow.·2023-08-08APMaui wildfires destroy historic Lahaina and kill at least 100.·2023-06-23FTWagner Group mutiny; Prigozhin's column marches on Moscow, then turns back.·2023-05-05WHOWHO declares the end of the COVID-19 global health emergency.·2023-03-22WMOAtmospheric CO₂ breaks 420 ppm for the first time in 4 million years.·2023-02-06ReutersEarthquake in Türkiye and Syria kills more than 59,000.·2022-11-30ReutersOpenAI launches ChatGPT to the public; mass-market generative AI begins.·2022-10-27ReutersElon Musk completes Twitter takeover; mass layoffs and policy reversals follow.·2022-09-16GuardianMahsa Amini dies in Iranian custody; women-led protests sweep the country.·2022-09-08BBCQueen Elizabeth II dies after 70 years on the throne.·2022-08-31ReutersPakistan floods displace 33 million; a third of the country underwater.·2022-06-24NYTUS Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade, ending the constitutional right to abortion.·2022-05-24NYTGunman kills 19 children and 2 teachers at Robb Elementary in Uvalde, Texas.·2022-03-09APRussian shelling of a Mariupol maternity hospital draws global condemnation.·2022-02-24BBCRussia launches full-scale invasion of Ukraine; largest land war in Europe since 1945.·2021-11-30NatureOmicron variant detected in southern Africa; spreads globally within weeks.·2021-10-31Carbon BriefIPCC: world on a 2.7°C warming track even if every Paris pledge is met.·2021-08-15ReutersTaliban enter Kabul; Afghan government collapses within hours of US withdrawal.·2021-07-09BBCWestern Canada heat dome kills 600 in days; Lytton burns to the ground.·2021-07-01BBCHong Kong's Apple Daily forced to shut as Beijing tightens national-security law.·2021-03-23FTContainer ship Ever Given blocks the Suez Canal for six days, halting global trade.·2021-02-15Texas TribuneTexas power grid collapses in winter storm; hundreds die in their homes.·2021-01-06ReutersPro-Trump mob storms the US Capitol to block certification of the election; five dead.·2020-12-31WHOGlobal COVID-19 deaths pass 1.8 million in the pandemic's first year.·2020-11-07APBiden defeats Trump; Trump refuses to concede the election.·2020-09-09SF ChronicleCalifornia wildfire smoke turns the San Francisco sky a dystopian orange.·2020-08-04Al JazeeraBeirut port explosion kills more than 200 and flattens half the city.·2020-05-25NYTGeorge Floyd killed by Minneapolis police; protests sweep cities worldwide.·2020-03-11BBCWHO declares COVID-19 a pandemic; global lockdowns begin.·2020-01-30ReutersWHO declares novel coronavirus a global health emergency.·2026-05-20Carbon Brief12-month global temperature anomaly stays above 1.55°C for the third consecutive year.·2026-02-05FASNew START Treaty officially expires with no successor agreement; nuclear-arms-control architecture collapses.·2025-12-04ReutersEuropean far-right gains in multiple national elections; centrist coalitions struggle to form.·2025-11-12ReutersWhite-collar AI layoffs accelerate across legal, marketing, and customer-support sectors.·2025-10-30WHOWHO: adolescent mental-health diagnoses up sharply versus pre-pandemic baseline.·2025-09-15LancetLancet study: indirect death toll from Gaza war likely exceeds 186,000.·2025-07-22CopernicusEurope shatters multiple national heat records in July heatwave; 50°C hit in parts of the south.·2025-06-22CNNUS bombs Iranian nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan during '12-day war.'·2025-06-13ReutersIsrael launches large-scale strikes on Iranian nuclear and command targets.·2025-04-30BBCIndia and Pakistan exchange strikes after Pahalgam attack in Kashmir.·2025-04-02ReutersTrump announces sweeping 'reciprocal' tariffs; global markets sell off hard.·2025-02-06ReutersTrump pauses most USAID funding; foreign-aid programs and partners scramble.·2025-01-20ReutersTrump returns to the White House; day-one executive orders on tariffs, deportations, climate, and TikTok.·2024-12-08ReutersBashar al-Assad regime falls in Syria after 53 years; rebels enter Damascus.·2024-11-21Al JazeeraICC issues arrest warrant for Netanyahu over Gaza war crimes allegations.·2024-11-05APDonald Trump wins second term; Republicans take both chambers of Congress.·2024-09-27ReutersIsraeli airstrike kills Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut.·2024-09-17ReutersCoordinated pager attacks in Lebanon kill dozens and wound thousands attributed to Hezbollah.·2024-08-24FTPavel Durov arrested in France; Telegram free-speech and crime debate erupts.·2024-08-04ReutersOpenAI o1 'reasoning' model debuts; cost of intelligent compute keeps falling.·2024-07-13ReutersTrump shot at Pennsylvania rally; survives.·2024-05-30ReutersDonald Trump becomes first US former president convicted of a felony.·2024-04-13BBCIran launches its first-ever direct strike on Israel: 300+ missiles and drones.·2024-02-16ReutersAlexei Navalny dies in Russian Arctic penal colony.·2024-01-26APICJ orders Israel to prevent genocidal acts in Gaza; genocide case proceeds.·2024-01-09ReutersHouthi attacks on Red Sea shipping force major carriers to reroute around Africa.·2023-12-12ReutersCOP28 ends with first-ever call for the world to 'transition away from fossil fuels.'·2023-11-15UN OCHAGaza death toll passes 11,000; UN warns of famine and collapse of medical system.·2023-10-07ReutersHamas attacks southern Israel; 1,195 killed and 251 hostages taken.·2023-09-08CopernicusEarth surpasses 1.5°C above pre-industrial averaged over 12 months for the first time.·2023-08-23ReutersYevgeny Prigozhin killed in a plane crash north of Moscow.·2023-08-08APMaui wildfires destroy historic Lahaina and kill at least 100.·2023-06-23FTWagner Group mutiny; Prigozhin's column marches on Moscow, then turns back.·2023-05-05WHOWHO declares the end of the COVID-19 global health emergency.·2023-03-22WMOAtmospheric CO₂ breaks 420 ppm for the first time in 4 million years.·2023-02-06ReutersEarthquake in Türkiye and Syria kills more than 59,000.·2022-11-30ReutersOpenAI launches ChatGPT to the public; mass-market generative AI begins.·2022-10-27ReutersElon Musk completes Twitter takeover; mass layoffs and policy reversals follow.·2022-09-16GuardianMahsa Amini dies in Iranian custody; women-led protests sweep the country.·2022-09-08BBCQueen Elizabeth II dies after 70 years on the throne.·2022-08-31ReutersPakistan floods displace 33 million; a third of the country underwater.·2022-06-24NYTUS Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade, ending the constitutional right to abortion.·2022-05-24NYTGunman kills 19 children and 2 teachers at Robb Elementary in Uvalde, Texas.·2022-03-09APRussian shelling of a Mariupol maternity hospital draws global condemnation.·2022-02-24BBCRussia launches full-scale invasion of Ukraine; largest land war in Europe since 1945.·2021-11-30NatureOmicron variant detected in southern Africa; spreads globally within weeks.·2021-10-31Carbon BriefIPCC: world on a 2.7°C warming track even if every Paris pledge is met.·2021-08-15ReutersTaliban enter Kabul; Afghan government collapses within hours of US withdrawal.·2021-07-09BBCWestern Canada heat dome kills 600 in days; Lytton burns to the ground.·2021-07-01BBCHong Kong's Apple Daily forced to shut as Beijing tightens national-security law.·2021-03-23FTContainer ship Ever Given blocks the Suez Canal for six days, halting global trade.·2021-02-15Texas TribuneTexas power grid collapses in winter storm; hundreds die in their homes.·2021-01-06ReutersPro-Trump mob storms the US Capitol to block certification of the election; five dead.·2020-12-31WHOGlobal COVID-19 deaths pass 1.8 million in the pandemic's first year.·2020-11-07APBiden defeats Trump; Trump refuses to concede the election.·2020-09-09SF ChronicleCalifornia wildfire smoke turns the San Francisco sky a dystopian orange.·2020-08-04Al JazeeraBeirut port explosion kills more than 200 and flattens half the city.·2020-05-25NYTGeorge Floyd killed by Minneapolis police; protests sweep cities worldwide.·2020-03-11BBCWHO declares COVID-19 a pandemic; global lockdowns begin.·2020-01-30ReutersWHO declares novel coronavirus a global health emergency.·
DYING·HUMANITY / PILLAR / ANIMALS & ECOSYSTEMS

OF EVERY MAMMAL ON EARTH, 96% IS US
OR WHAT WE EAT.

We are not approaching the sixth mass extinction. We are in it. The Living Planet Index records a 73% average decline in monitored vertebrate populations since 1970. IUCN: ~46,000 species are now threatened with extinction. Bar-On et al. quantified the biomass distribution: humans and our livestock make up ~96% of mammalian biomass; wild mammals are ~4%. Six of nine planetary boundaries are now breached. This is not what a healthy biosphere looks like; it is what a biosphere looks like shortly before its support functions begin to fail.

T −8years·0days·00hrs:00min:00sec
CATASTROPHIC· COMPOSITE 84/100
THE NUMBERS

Six figures behind the composite.

-73
%
Average decline in monitored vertebrate populations since 1970
WWF Living Planet Report 2024. 35,000+ populations across nearly 5,500 species. Freshwater populations down 85%.
46
K
Species now threatened with extinction
IUCN Red List 2024. Of ~166,000 assessed. Amphibians ~41% threatened; cycads ~64%.
96
%
·
Mammal biomass that is humans + livestock
Bar-On, Phillips & Milo PNAS 2018. Wild mammals make up the remaining 4%.
6
Of 9 planetary boundaries now breached
Richardson et al. Science Advances 2023. Climate, biosphere, land, biogeochemical, novel entities, freshwater.
92
B
Land animals killed for food per year
FAOSTAT 2024. Plus ~1-2 trillion fish per year. The largest confinement system in the history of life.
77
%
World's coral exposed to bleaching-level heat in past year
NOAA Coral Reef Watch 2024. 4th global mass-bleaching event under way. At 1.5°C average warming, bleaching becomes annual.
COMPOSITE

One 0-100 score.

025456582100
84
Composite Index
Catastrophic
CURRENT READING

Heuristic seed snapshot. Ecosystems stress sits at the upper end of the 'Catastrophic' band. The Living Planet Index shows a 73% average decline in monitored vertebrate populations since 1970. The IUCN Red List has ~46,000 species threatened with extinction (out of ~166,000 assessed). Bar-On et al. (2018): of the planet's mammal biomass, ~96% is now humans and our livestock; wild mammals are ~4%. Roughly 6 of 9 planetary boundaries are now judged breached (Richardson et al. 2023). Coral reefs are experiencing annual mass bleaching at every 1.5°C+ year, i.e. now. We are not approaching the sixth mass extinction. We are in it.

Catastrophic· composite 84/100
TRAJECTORY

Over time.

THREE TIME-SERIES

Living Planet Index, IUCN threatened share, and coral bleaching exposure.

1970197919881997200620152024Living Planet IUCN threateneCoral area exp0-100 PER-SERIES NORMALISED
  • Living Planet Index (1970 = 1.0)WWF / ZSL. -73% by 2020.
  • IUCN threatened species share (%)13% in 2000 → 28% in 2024.
  • Coral area exposed to bleaching heat (%)30% in 2015 → 77% in 2024.
SOURCE · WWF/ZSL Living Planet Report 2024; IUCN Red List; NOAA Coral Reef Watch
LIVING PLANET INDEX BY BIOME

Steepest where biodiversity was greatest.

Regional LPI declines 1970-2020. Latin America/Caribbean lost 95% of monitored populations; freshwater systems globally lost 85%. North America and Europe look 'better' because most of their losses predate 1970.

SORT
  • Latin America & Caribbeanbiome
    95%
  • Freshwaterbiome
    85%
  • Africabiome
    76%
  • Asia-Pacificbiome
    60%
  • North Americabiome
    39%
  • Europe & C. Asiabiome
    35%
READINGLatin America & Caribbean stands out as the highest at 95%.
SOURCE · WWF / ZSL Living Planet Report 2024
SIGNALS

What the score is measuring.

Living Planet Index
Average decline in monitored vertebrate populations since 1970 (WWF / ZSL).
weight 13% · sources: WWF Living Planet Report 2024, Zoological Society of London
WWF Living Planet Report 2024: -73% average proportional change in 35,000+ monitored populations across nearly 5,500 vertebrate species since 1970. Freshwater populations down 85%.
cit: WWF Living Planet Report 2024
9.0
IUCN Red List threatened share
Share of assessed species classified vulnerable, endangered, or critically endangered.
weight 11% · sources: IUCN Red List 2024 update
IUCN Red List 2024: ~46,300 species classified threatened with extinction, of ~166,000 assessed. Amphibians ~41% threatened; cycads ~64%.
cit: IUCN Red List 2024
8.0
Background-vs-current extinction rate
Multiple of the long-run background extinction rate at which species are now being lost.
weight 12% · sources: Ceballos et al. PNAS 2017/2024, Pimm et al. Science 2014
Ceballos et al. 2017/2024 + Pimm et al. 2014: current vertebrate extinctions running at 100-1000x the long-run background rate. Calling this the sixth mass extinction is no longer rhetorical.
cit: Ceballos PNAS 2017/2024 · Pimm Science 2014
9.0
Flying-insect biomass collapse
Long-term insect biomass decline in protected areas (Krefeld study + replications).
weight 10% · sources: Hallmann et al. PLoS ONE 2017 (Krefeld), Wagner et al. PNAS 2021
Krefeld study (Hallmann 2017): 76% decline in flying-insect biomass in German protected areas, 1989-2016. Multiple replications since (Wagner 2021): land-arthropod abundance ~5%/decade declines globally.
cit: Hallmann 2017 · Wagner 2021
8.0
Marine fish stocks fully exploited or overfished
Share of assessed wild marine fish stocks classified as fully exploited or overfished.
weight 10% · sources: FAO State of World Fisheries 2024
FAO State of World Fisheries 2024: ~37% of marine fish stocks are overfished; another ~58% are at maximally sustainable yield ('fully exploited'). Bluefin tuna, certain cod populations, sharks: collapse-state.
cit: FAO SOFIA 2024
7.0
Habitat conversion & deforestation
Annual loss of natural habitat (forest, wetland, grassland) to agricultural & urban use.
weight 10% · sources: Global Forest Watch 2024, FAO FRA, Ramsar Wetlands Outlook
Global Forest Watch 2024: 3.7M ha of tropical primary forest lost in 2024: area of Bhutan. Wetlands have lost ~35% of their area since 1970 (Ramsar). Grassland and savanna conversion at record rates.
cit: GFW 2024 · Ramsar 2023
8.0
Wild-vs-livestock-vs-human biomass
How the planet's mammal biomass is now distributed (Bar-On, Phillips & Milo 2018 PNAS).
weight 10% · sources: Bar-On et al. PNAS 2018
Bar-On et al. 2018 PNAS: of mammalian biomass, ~36% is humans, ~60% is our livestock, ~4% is wild. Of birds: ~70% are domesticated poultry, ~30% wild. The biomass distribution itself is the planetary signal.
cit: Bar-On Phillips Milo 2018
9.0
Factory-farm population scale
Number of land animals killed for food per year (FAOSTAT + Sentience Institute).
weight 8% · sources: FAOSTAT 2024, Our World in Data; Sentience Institute
FAOSTAT 2024: ~92 billion land animals killed for food per year; ~80%+ in factory-farm conditions. Fish: estimated 1-2 trillion individuals per year (Sentience Institute). The scale of confinement is unprecedented in the history of life.
cit: FAOSTAT 2024 · Sentience Institute 2024
8.0
Coral reef bleaching frequency
Annual share of monitored reefs experiencing thermal bleaching events.
weight 8% · sources: NOAA Coral Reef Watch, ICRI Global Coral Bleaching Report 2024
NOAA Coral Reef Watch 2024: 4th global mass-bleaching event under way. 77% of world's coral area exposed to bleaching-level heat 2023-24. At 1.5°C average warming, mass bleaching becomes effectively annual.
cit: NOAA CRW 2024 · ICRI 2024
9.0
Planetary boundaries crossed
Number of the 9 Earth-system boundaries currently judged to be breached.
weight 8% · sources: Richardson et al. Science Advances 2023
Richardson et al. Science Advances 2023: 6 of 9 planetary boundaries now breached: climate, biosphere integrity, land-system change, biogeochemical flows (N and P), novel entities (e.g. plastics, persistent chemicals), freshwater change. Ocean acidification very close.
cit: Richardson et al. 2023
9.0
PERSPECTIVES

Several traditions reading the same data.

On the question of

Are we causing a sixth mass extinction, and what does that actually mean?

What we are doing & what it means
Western scientific
Conservation biology

The current rate of vertebrate extinction is 100-1000x the long-run background rate. This is the definitional threshold for a mass-extinction event. Five previous mass extinctions all happened over geological timescales; the current one is happening over a human lifetime. The scale and speed are without precedent in the fossil record.

Earth is now experiencing its sixth mass extinction, and it is caused by a single species.

Ceballos, Ehrlich & Dirzo, Biological Annihilation (PNAS 2017)
Indigenous
Indigenous kinship

Indigenous traditions don't separate the human from the non-human, and don't separate the ecological from the moral. The collapse the data describes is, in this frame, a rupture of relationships, relationships that human survival has always depended on, and that many traditions have refused to forget. Indigenous-managed land continues to outperform every other land-tenure category on biodiversity outcomes.

All flourishing is mutual. So is all collapse.

Robin Wall Kimmerer, Braiding Sweetgrass; Vine Deloria Jr., God Is Red
Critical
Animal welfare / utilitarian

The factory-farming system kills ~92 billion land animals per year and ~1-2 trillion fish, the vast majority in conditions of intense confinement and suffering. The biodiversity-loss story is genuinely real; it is also coupled to a much larger moral story about the lives that are not lost to extinction but are spent in suffering at industrial scale.

Peter Singer, Animal Liberation; Christine Korsgaard, Fellow Creatures
Religious
Religious stewardship

Across multiple traditions: creation is held in trust. Genesis 2 'dominion-as-stewardship'; the Quranic notion of khalifa (vicegerency); the Buddhist principle of ahimsa toward all sentient beings; Hindu concept of vasudhaiva kutumbakam ('the world is one family'). The traditions converge on a duty of care that the current economic system has structurally rejected.

Pope Francis, Laudato Si' (2015); Islamic Declaration on Global Climate Change (2015)
Critical
Deep ecology

Non-human life has intrinsic value independent of human use. The biodiversity-loss frame is morally inadequate if it casts the problem as 'how we lose ecosystem services we needed'. The problem is what we are doing to the living world on its own terms. This perspective is more present in continental philosophy and certain religious traditions than in Anglosphere economics.

Arne Naess, Deep Ecology Movement; Val Plumwood; David Abram
Critical
Anthropocene-as-Capitalocene

Calling this the 'Anthropocene' obscures who actually did it. The drivers of ecological collapse are not 'humans' as such; they are a small set of historically-specific economic relations: colonialism, fossil capitalism, extractivism, operating on a planetary scale. Naming it more precisely changes the responsibility distribution.

Jason Moore, Capitalism in the Web of Life; Donna Haraway, Staying with the Trouble
Industry
Agricultural-industry pragmatist

Feeding 8 billion people requires industrial agriculture. Many of the dietary substitutions environmentalists advocate are politically and economically unrealistic at scale. Sustainable intensification, more output per hectare with less environmental load, is more tractable than de-industrialisation. Aspirations must meet what actually feeds people.

Mark Lynas, Seeds of Science; Our World in Data agricultural-yield analyses
Critical
Rewilding / ecological restoration

Where humans step back, ecosystems recover faster than most models predicted. The European bison, beaver, white-tailed eagle, otter, large carnivore returns across Europe show what's possible. Rewilding is the most under-rated intervention in the toolkit: low cost, high return, politically tractable in many contexts.

Rewilding Europe; Isabella Tree, Wilding; Carl Safina
On the question of

If 6 of 9 planetary boundaries are crossed, what does that actually imply for the future?

What this means for life
Western scientific
Stockholm Resilience & PB framework

Each boundary breach raises the probability of catastrophic, irreversible state-shifts. Six breaches are not six separate problems; they interact and amplify. Crossing them sequentially erodes the regulatory mechanisms that kept the Holocene stable for the entire span of agricultural civilisation. The question is no longer 'will Earth-system stability survive'; it is 'what comes after, and on what timescale'.

Richardson, Steffen, Lucht et al. Science Advances 2023
Western scientific
Biospheric-collapse risk

The Living Planet Index continuing on trend implies the loss of ecosystem-service support: pollination, nutrient cycling, freshwater purification, climate regulation, disease control. Even staying conservative on the science, the next few decades will see the first measurable ecosystem-services failures at continental scale. The cost in human welfare will be enormous.

IPBES Global Assessment 2019; Costanza et al. ecosystem services
Critical
Existential-risk framework

Biospheric collapse is not directly an extinction-level event for Homo sapiens; civilisation has degrees of resilience the rest of the biosphere lacks. But the cascading consequences (resource conflict, mass migration, food-system disruption, pandemic emergence) drive the upper-tail risks of civilisational disruption. Treating ecological collapse as separate from existential risk is a category error.

Future of Humanity Institute; Centre for the Study of Existential Risk
Indigenous
Spiritual / relational loss

Most of what is being lost cannot be measured by the language available. The loss of relationship with non-human life is itself the loss. Cultures that hold this relationship as constitutive are speaking a language Western policy mostly cannot hear. The remedy is also constitutive: re-attention to what is being given up.

Robin Wall Kimmerer; Joanna Macy, Coming Back to Life
Critical
Hopeful realist

Many of the trajectories are not yet locked in. Forest cover has recovered in parts of Europe, North America, China. Large-vertebrate populations have rebounded under protection in specific cases. Marine fisheries with serious enforcement have recovered. The collapse is real; the recovery levers also work, and the cost-benefit case for using them is overwhelming.

Rewilding Europe; FAO recovery cases; Isabella Tree
BIOMASS · BAR-ON, PHILLIPS & MILO · PNAS 2018

Of every mammal on Earth, 96% is us or what we eat.

Bar-On et al. assembled the first comprehensive estimate of biomass distribution across kingdoms. The result for mammals is one of the starkest single numbers in environmental science: wild mammals, from elephants to whales to bats to mice, make up 4% of the mammalian biomass. The other 96% is humans (~36%) and our livestock (~60%). Birds are nearly as extreme.

MAMMAL BIOMASS DISTRIBUTION TODAY
60%
36%
  • 60%Livestock (cattle, pigs, sheep, goats, etc.)~0.10 Gt C. Bovines alone constitute more biomass than all wild mammals combined by ~5x.
  • 36%Humans~0.06 Gt C. We constitute more mammal biomass than every wild mammal species on Earth combined.
  • 4%Wild mammals~0.007 Gt C. From elephants to whales to bats to mice. 4% of what was once nearly 100%.
SOURCE · Bar-On, Phillips, Milo, PNAS 2018
BIRD BIOMASS DISTRIBUTION TODAY
70%
30%
  • 70%Poultry (mostly chickens)~0.005 Gt C. Chickens alone outnumber wild birds ~3:1.
  • 30%Wild birds~0.002 Gt C.
SOURCE · Bar-On, Phillips, Milo, PNAS 2018
WILD-MAMMAL BIOMASS BEFORE AGRICULTURE VS TODAY
100%
15%
  • 100%Before agriculture (~10,000 BCE)Reference baseline. Reconstructed; significant uncertainty.
  • 15%Today~85% reduction over 10,000 years; the steepest declines came in the past 200 years.
SOURCE · Smil 2011; Bar-On 2018
WHAT THIS MEANSEvery visualisation of the planet's living world that omits this number is hiding the most important fact about it. The Earth is not 'home' to wild animals any more in any meaningful biomass sense. It is home to us, the animals we raise to eat, and a residual 4% of everything else.
MASS EXTINCTIONS · COMPARED

Five times before. The sixth is happening at one hundred to one thousand times the background rate.

The five previous mass extinctions are recognised by the Geological Time Scale. Each lost 70-96% of species over hundreds of thousands to millions of years. We have lost ~1% of vertebrate species so far in the current event, but the rate at which we are losing them is 100-1000x the long-run background. Projected forward, the cumulative loss converges on prior mass-extinction magnitudes within a few hundred years.

  1. Ordovician–Silurian
    444 Mya

    Glaciation, sea-level fall.

    86%species lost
  2. Late Devonian
    372 Mya

    Anoxic events, volcanism.

    75%species lost
  3. Permian–Triassic
    252 Mya

    Siberian Traps volcanism; 'The Great Dying'.

    96%species lost
  4. Triassic–Jurassic
    201 Mya

    Volcanism, climate change.

    80%species lost
  5. Cretaceous–Paleogene
    66 Mya

    Chicxulub asteroid; non-avian dinosaurs lost.

    76%species lost
  6. Holocene / Anthropocene · ongoing
    10K yrs ago

    Habitat loss, climate change, invasive species, overexploitation: driven by humans.

    Vertebrate extinction rate now running at 100-1000x background. At current trajectory, projected species loss matches prior mass-extinction magnitudes within centuries.

    1%species lost
PLANETARY BOUNDARIES · RICHARDSON ET AL. 2023

Six of nine planetary boundaries are now breached.

Of the nine planetary boundaries, six are now judged to be in the high-risk zone (Richardson et al. 2023). Ocean acidification is right at the threshold and likely to cross it within the decade. Only three remain comfortably within their safe operating space.

SAFE OPERATING SPACECLIMATE CHANGEBIOSPHERE INTEGRITYLAND-SYSTEM CHANGEBIOGEOCHEMICAL FLOWS (N, P)FRESHWATER CHANGENOVEL ENTITIESOCEAN ACIDIFICATIONSTRATOSPHERIC OZONEATMOSPHERIC AEROSOL LOADINGEARTHSAFE
Climate changeCROSSED
SINCE · 1988 (CO₂)

Atmospheric CO₂ at 425 ppm vs ~350 ppm safe-operating-space ceiling. Energy imbalance crossed by ~1.5 W/m².

Biosphere integrityCROSSED
SINCE · long-standing

Extinction rate at 100-1000x background. Functional integrity of biosphere significantly degraded across all major biomes.

Land-system changeCROSSED
SINCE · ~1990

Forest cover at ~60% of original; tropical forest at ~50%. Boreal and temperate forests stable or recovering in some regions; tropical loss accelerating.

Biogeochemical flows (N, P)CROSSED
SINCE · ~1970

Industrial nitrogen and phosphorus fixation now dwarf natural cycles. Dead zones in coastal oceans expanding.

Freshwater changeCROSSED
SINCE · ~2022 (revised)

Green-water (soil moisture) component breaches safe range under current trajectories. Blue-water (rivers, lakes, aquifers) still within range in aggregate but stressed regionally.

Novel entitiesCROSSED
SINCE · long-standing

Plastics, persistent organic pollutants, manufactured nano-materials, antibiotics in the environment. Cannot be 'returned to safe range', only stabilised at higher levels.

Ocean acidificationAPPROACHING
SINCE · near-threshold

Surface ocean pH ~8.05 vs 8.2 pre-industrial. Calcification thresholds for most shellfish and reef-builders breached at projected 2030 levels.

Stratospheric ozoneRECOVERING
SINCE · Montreal Protocol 1987

The success case. Montreal Protocol phased out CFCs; ozone layer healing at expected rate. Proof that planetary-scale coordination is possible when it is conceptually clean and politically narrow.

Atmospheric aerosol loadingWITHIN RANGE
SINCE · stable

Within safe operating space at global average; regional hotspots (South Asia, Africa) significantly degraded.

SOURCE · Richardson, Steffen, Lucht et al., Science Advances 2023
SPECIES DEATHWATCH · A FEW NAMES

The ones we have a date for. The ones we wrote down.

Most extinctions are silent: species that vanished before they were named, before they were photographed, before anyone counted them. These thirteen are the ones we have a year for. The dodo (1681) is the cliché. The Bramble Cay melomys (2019) is the first documented mammal extinction attributed directly to sea-level rise. The list grows; the entries between get shorter and shorter.

  1. 1681DodoMauritius

    Introduced predators, hunting

  2. 1768Steller's sea cowBering Sea

    Hunting; species lost within ~30 years of European contact

  3. 1844Great aukNorth Atlantic

    Hunting for feathers

  4. 1883QuaggaSouth Africa

    Hunting (subspecies of plains zebra)

  5. 1914Passenger pigeonNorth America

    Hunting: population went from billions to extinct in 100 years

  6. 1936Thylacine (Tasmanian tiger)Tasmania

    Government bounty, agricultural displacement

  7. 1962Caribbean monk sealCaribbean

    Hunting

  8. 1990Golden toadCosta Rica cloud forest

    Climate change + chytrid fungus

  9. 2000Pyrenean ibexPyrenees

    Hunting

  10. 2006Baiji (Yangtze dolphin)China

    Industrial fishing, pollution, dam construction

  11. 2018Spix's macaw (wild)Brazil

    Habitat loss, illegal trade. Captive breeding ongoing.

  12. 2019Bramble Cay melomysAustralia · Torres Strait

    First documented mammal extinction from sea-level rise

  13. 2024Dwarf hutia (presumed)Cuba

    Habitat loss; declared extinct after 50+ years no records

FOR PERSPECTIVEFor every named species above, conservation biologists estimate dozens to hundreds of unnamed insect, plant, fungal, and microbial species lost in the same period. A 'completed' deathwatch is impossible: most of what we are losing was never catalogued.
DOWNSTREAM

What it does to everything else.

FOODAbout 75% of food crops depend on insect pollination (IPBES 2016). Insect biomass is down ~76% in long-term protected-area studies (Hallmann et al. 2017). Pollination-deficit yield losses are already measured in apples, pears, blueberries, and almonds.

WATERFreshwater populations are down 85% since 1970 (WWF LPI 2024). Wetlands have lost a third of their area in the same window (Ramsar Wetlands Outlook). Aquifer depletion is now the dominant freshwater story in India, the US Midwest, North China, and the Middle East.

CLIMATEForests and oceans together absorb about half of human CO₂ emissions every year (Global Carbon Project 2024). Both sinks are weakening: the Amazon has flipped to a net source in some years (Gatti et al. 2021); oceans warm, stratify, and lose capacity. Most climate trajectories assume healthy sinks.

DISEASEAbout 75% of new infectious diseases in humans are zoonotic (UNEP / ILRI 2020). Habitat loss and factory-farm proximity to wild populations is the dominant pipeline. SARS, MERS, Ebola, H5N1, COVID-19, Mpox: all of them sit on this story.

SOILTopsoil is being lost at 10-40x the rate it forms (FAO 2015). The FAO estimated the world has roughly 60 harvests left at current degradation rates. Soil collapse is invisible until it isn't.

RELATIONALSome of what is being lost is not measurable in calories or kilowatts. A child born now will encounter perhaps a tenth of the wildness their great-grandparents knew. This sits closer to the meaning pillar than to the food one, but it is not separate from either.

None of this is recovery-proof. Forest cover has rebounded in parts of Europe and China. Large vertebrates have rebounded under protection. Marine fisheries with serious enforcement have rebounded. The collapse is real and the recovery levers also work. The choice is current and the cost-benefit case for using them is overwhelming, but the window in which the levers exist is finite.

TRUST

Sources, weights, and code are open.

Data provenance

Where every number comes from

The composite index is computed from the signals listed on this page, each backed by one or more named sources. Where the source publishes a public dataset or feed it is linked below; where a signal involves qualitative judgement, the LLM-assisted pass is explicitly marked on the signal card.

  • ·Bar-On et al. PNAS 2018
  • ·Ceballos et al. PNAS 2017/2024
  • ·FAO FRA
  • ·FAO State of World Fisheries 2024
  • ·FAOSTAT 2024
  • ·Global Forest Watch 2024
  • ·Hallmann et al. PLoS ONE 2017 (Krefeld)
  • ·ICRI Global Coral Bleaching Report 2024
  • ·IUCN Red List 2024 update
  • ·NOAA Coral Reef Watch
  • ·Our World in Data; Sentience Institute
  • ·Pimm et al. Science 2014
  • ·Ramsar Wetlands Outlook
  • ·Richardson et al. Science Advances 2023
  • ·WWF Living Planet Report 2024
  • ·Wagner et al. PNAS 2021
  • ·Zoological Society of London
Audit trail

Everything is versioned

  • Every hourly snapshot is committed to git with a message naming the signals that moved.
  • A daily snapshot is archived to data/history-current/ for the calibration log.
  • Raw scraped article lists are written to data/raw/ so a score is reproducible from its input bundle.
  • Signal definitions, weights, and seeded scores all live in plain JSON or TypeScript; anyone can open a PR challenging a value and explain why.
What this is NOT
Not a prediction.
The composite index is descriptive. Subjective estimates are published openly so the track record becomes visible, not because the author believes them precisely calibrated today.
Not journalism.
Sources are listed but this is not original reporting. If the inputs feeding the LLM are wrong, the score is wrong. Triangulate with primary reporting before drawing conclusions.
Not impartial.
Signal definitions, weights, and historical scores reflect the author's reading. Bias is unavoidable in this kind of synthesis; the mitigation is that it's all explicit and challengeable signal by signal.
METHODOLOGY

How this pillar is scored.

Methodology & limits

Ten signals, weighted into a 0-100 score: the Living Planet Index, IUCN threatened-species share, current-vs-background extinction rate, insect-biomass collapse, marine-stock overexploitation, habitat loss, the human/livestock/wild biomass distribution, factory-farm scale, coral bleaching frequency, and the planetary-boundaries count.

The biomass-distribution signal is scored as catastrophic on its own merits. Most of the other signals here vary across decades. That one is, right now, structural; it will not reverse without changes well outside the current policy window.

Three other pillars touch this one in the data, not just in framing. Climate: six of nine planetary boundaries directly involve climate-system state. Inequality: extractivism is the inequality story applied to land. War: resource conflict and forced migration are downstream of ecological collapse.

Living Planet Index
w 13%
Average decline in monitored vertebrate populations since 1970 (WWF / ZSL).
sources: WWF Living Planet Report 2024, Zoological Society of London
IUCN Red List threatened share
w 11%
Share of assessed species classified vulnerable, endangered, or critically endangered.
sources: IUCN Red List 2024 update
Background-vs-current extinction rate
w 12%
Multiple of the long-run background extinction rate at which species are now being lost.
sources: Ceballos et al. PNAS 2017/2024, Pimm et al. Science 2014
Flying-insect biomass collapse
w 10%
Long-term insect biomass decline in protected areas (Krefeld study + replications).
sources: Hallmann et al. PLoS ONE 2017 (Krefeld), Wagner et al. PNAS 2021
Marine fish stocks fully exploited or overfished
w 10%
Share of assessed wild marine fish stocks classified as fully exploited or overfished.
sources: FAO State of World Fisheries 2024
Habitat conversion & deforestation
w 10%
Annual loss of natural habitat (forest, wetland, grassland) to agricultural & urban use.
sources: Global Forest Watch 2024, FAO FRA, Ramsar Wetlands Outlook
Wild-vs-livestock-vs-human biomass
w 10%
How the planet's mammal biomass is now distributed (Bar-On, Phillips & Milo 2018 PNAS).
sources: Bar-On et al. PNAS 2018
Factory-farm population scale
w 8%
Number of land animals killed for food per year (FAOSTAT + Sentience Institute).
sources: FAOSTAT 2024, Our World in Data; Sentience Institute
Coral reef bleaching frequency
w 8%
Annual share of monitored reefs experiencing thermal bleaching events.
sources: NOAA Coral Reef Watch, ICRI Global Coral Bleaching Report 2024
Planetary boundaries crossed
w 8%
Number of the 9 Earth-system boundaries currently judged to be breached.
sources: Richardson et al. Science Advances 2023
CROSS-REFERENCES · KEEP READING