EVIDENCE LIVE FEED
2026-05-20Carbon Brief12-month global temperature anomaly stays above 1.55°C for the third consecutive year.·2026-02-05FASNew START Treaty officially expires with no successor agreement; nuclear-arms-control architecture collapses.·2025-12-04ReutersEuropean far-right gains in multiple national elections; centrist coalitions struggle to form.·2025-11-12ReutersWhite-collar AI layoffs accelerate across legal, marketing, and customer-support sectors.·2025-10-30WHOWHO: adolescent mental-health diagnoses up sharply versus pre-pandemic baseline.·2025-09-15LancetLancet study: indirect death toll from Gaza war likely exceeds 186,000.·2025-07-22CopernicusEurope shatters multiple national heat records in July heatwave; 50°C hit in parts of the south.·2025-06-22CNNUS bombs Iranian nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan during '12-day war.'·2025-06-13ReutersIsrael launches large-scale strikes on Iranian nuclear and command targets.·2025-04-30BBCIndia and Pakistan exchange strikes after Pahalgam attack in Kashmir.·2025-04-02ReutersTrump announces sweeping 'reciprocal' tariffs; global markets sell off hard.·2025-02-06ReutersTrump pauses most USAID funding; foreign-aid programs and partners scramble.·2025-01-20ReutersTrump returns to the White House; day-one executive orders on tariffs, deportations, climate, and TikTok.·2024-12-08ReutersBashar al-Assad regime falls in Syria after 53 years; rebels enter Damascus.·2024-11-21Al JazeeraICC issues arrest warrant for Netanyahu over Gaza war crimes allegations.·2024-11-05APDonald Trump wins second term; Republicans take both chambers of Congress.·2024-09-27ReutersIsraeli airstrike kills Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut.·2024-09-17ReutersCoordinated pager attacks in Lebanon kill dozens and wound thousands attributed to Hezbollah.·2026-05-20Carbon Brief12-month global temperature anomaly stays above 1.55°C for the third consecutive year.·2026-02-05FASNew START Treaty officially expires with no successor agreement; nuclear-arms-control architecture collapses.·2025-12-04ReutersEuropean far-right gains in multiple national elections; centrist coalitions struggle to form.·2025-11-12ReutersWhite-collar AI layoffs accelerate across legal, marketing, and customer-support sectors.·2025-10-30WHOWHO: adolescent mental-health diagnoses up sharply versus pre-pandemic baseline.·2025-09-15LancetLancet study: indirect death toll from Gaza war likely exceeds 186,000.·2025-07-22CopernicusEurope shatters multiple national heat records in July heatwave; 50°C hit in parts of the south.·2025-06-22CNNUS bombs Iranian nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan during '12-day war.'·2025-06-13ReutersIsrael launches large-scale strikes on Iranian nuclear and command targets.·2025-04-30BBCIndia and Pakistan exchange strikes after Pahalgam attack in Kashmir.·2025-04-02ReutersTrump announces sweeping 'reciprocal' tariffs; global markets sell off hard.·2025-02-06ReutersTrump pauses most USAID funding; foreign-aid programs and partners scramble.·2025-01-20ReutersTrump returns to the White House; day-one executive orders on tariffs, deportations, climate, and TikTok.·2024-12-08ReutersBashar al-Assad regime falls in Syria after 53 years; rebels enter Damascus.·2024-11-21Al JazeeraICC issues arrest warrant for Netanyahu over Gaza war crimes allegations.·2024-11-05APDonald Trump wins second term; Republicans take both chambers of Congress.·2024-09-27ReutersIsraeli airstrike kills Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut.·2024-09-17ReutersCoordinated pager attacks in Lebanon kill dozens and wound thousands attributed to Hezbollah.·
2024-08-24FTPavel Durov arrested in France; Telegram free-speech and crime debate erupts.·2024-08-04ReutersOpenAI o1 'reasoning' model debuts; cost of intelligent compute keeps falling.·2024-07-13ReutersTrump shot at Pennsylvania rally; survives.·2024-05-30ReutersDonald Trump becomes first US former president convicted of a felony.·2024-04-13BBCIran launches its first-ever direct strike on Israel: 300+ missiles and drones.·2024-02-16ReutersAlexei Navalny dies in Russian Arctic penal colony.·2024-01-26APICJ orders Israel to prevent genocidal acts in Gaza; genocide case proceeds.·2024-01-09ReutersHouthi attacks on Red Sea shipping force major carriers to reroute around Africa.·2023-12-12ReutersCOP28 ends with first-ever call for the world to 'transition away from fossil fuels.'·2023-11-15UN OCHAGaza death toll passes 11,000; UN warns of famine and collapse of medical system.·2023-10-07ReutersHamas attacks southern Israel; 1,195 killed and 251 hostages taken.·2023-09-08CopernicusEarth surpasses 1.5°C above pre-industrial averaged over 12 months for the first time.·2023-08-23ReutersYevgeny Prigozhin killed in a plane crash north of Moscow.·2023-08-08APMaui wildfires destroy historic Lahaina and kill at least 100.·2023-06-23FTWagner Group mutiny; Prigozhin's column marches on Moscow, then turns back.·2023-05-05WHOWHO declares the end of the COVID-19 global health emergency.·2023-03-22WMOAtmospheric CO₂ breaks 420 ppm for the first time in 4 million years.·2023-02-06ReutersEarthquake in Türkiye and Syria kills more than 59,000.·2022-11-30ReutersOpenAI launches ChatGPT to the public; mass-market generative AI begins.·2022-10-27ReutersElon Musk completes Twitter takeover; mass layoffs and policy reversals follow.·2024-08-24FTPavel Durov arrested in France; Telegram free-speech and crime debate erupts.·2024-08-04ReutersOpenAI o1 'reasoning' model debuts; cost of intelligent compute keeps falling.·2024-07-13ReutersTrump shot at Pennsylvania rally; survives.·2024-05-30ReutersDonald Trump becomes first US former president convicted of a felony.·2024-04-13BBCIran launches its first-ever direct strike on Israel: 300+ missiles and drones.·2024-02-16ReutersAlexei Navalny dies in Russian Arctic penal colony.·2024-01-26APICJ orders Israel to prevent genocidal acts in Gaza; genocide case proceeds.·2024-01-09ReutersHouthi attacks on Red Sea shipping force major carriers to reroute around Africa.·2023-12-12ReutersCOP28 ends with first-ever call for the world to 'transition away from fossil fuels.'·2023-11-15UN OCHAGaza death toll passes 11,000; UN warns of famine and collapse of medical system.·2023-10-07ReutersHamas attacks southern Israel; 1,195 killed and 251 hostages taken.·2023-09-08CopernicusEarth surpasses 1.5°C above pre-industrial averaged over 12 months for the first time.·2023-08-23ReutersYevgeny Prigozhin killed in a plane crash north of Moscow.·2023-08-08APMaui wildfires destroy historic Lahaina and kill at least 100.·2023-06-23FTWagner Group mutiny; Prigozhin's column marches on Moscow, then turns back.·2023-05-05WHOWHO declares the end of the COVID-19 global health emergency.·2023-03-22WMOAtmospheric CO₂ breaks 420 ppm for the first time in 4 million years.·2023-02-06ReutersEarthquake in Türkiye and Syria kills more than 59,000.·2022-11-30ReutersOpenAI launches ChatGPT to the public; mass-market generative AI begins.·2022-10-27ReutersElon Musk completes Twitter takeover; mass layoffs and policy reversals follow.·
2026-05-20Carbon Brief12-month global temperature anomaly stays above 1.55°C for the third consecutive year.·2026-02-05FASNew START Treaty officially expires with no successor agreement; nuclear-arms-control architecture collapses.·2025-12-04ReutersEuropean far-right gains in multiple national elections; centrist coalitions struggle to form.·2025-11-12ReutersWhite-collar AI layoffs accelerate across legal, marketing, and customer-support sectors.·2025-10-30WHOWHO: adolescent mental-health diagnoses up sharply versus pre-pandemic baseline.·2025-09-15LancetLancet study: indirect death toll from Gaza war likely exceeds 186,000.·2025-07-22CopernicusEurope shatters multiple national heat records in July heatwave; 50°C hit in parts of the south.·2025-06-22CNNUS bombs Iranian nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan during '12-day war.'·2025-06-13ReutersIsrael launches large-scale strikes on Iranian nuclear and command targets.·2025-04-30BBCIndia and Pakistan exchange strikes after Pahalgam attack in Kashmir.·2025-04-02ReutersTrump announces sweeping 'reciprocal' tariffs; global markets sell off hard.·2025-02-06ReutersTrump pauses most USAID funding; foreign-aid programs and partners scramble.·2025-01-20ReutersTrump returns to the White House; day-one executive orders on tariffs, deportations, climate, and TikTok.·2024-12-08ReutersBashar al-Assad regime falls in Syria after 53 years; rebels enter Damascus.·2024-11-21Al JazeeraICC issues arrest warrant for Netanyahu over Gaza war crimes allegations.·2024-11-05APDonald Trump wins second term; Republicans take both chambers of Congress.·2024-09-27ReutersIsraeli airstrike kills Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut.·2024-09-17ReutersCoordinated pager attacks in Lebanon kill dozens and wound thousands attributed to Hezbollah.·2024-08-24FTPavel Durov arrested in France; Telegram free-speech and crime debate erupts.·2024-08-04ReutersOpenAI o1 'reasoning' model debuts; cost of intelligent compute keeps falling.·2024-07-13ReutersTrump shot at Pennsylvania rally; survives.·2024-05-30ReutersDonald Trump becomes first US former president convicted of a felony.·2024-04-13BBCIran launches its first-ever direct strike on Israel: 300+ missiles and drones.·2024-02-16ReutersAlexei Navalny dies in Russian Arctic penal colony.·2024-01-26APICJ orders Israel to prevent genocidal acts in Gaza; genocide case proceeds.·2024-01-09ReutersHouthi attacks on Red Sea shipping force major carriers to reroute around Africa.·2023-12-12ReutersCOP28 ends with first-ever call for the world to 'transition away from fossil fuels.'·2023-11-15UN OCHAGaza death toll passes 11,000; UN warns of famine and collapse of medical system.·2023-10-07ReutersHamas attacks southern Israel; 1,195 killed and 251 hostages taken.·2023-09-08CopernicusEarth surpasses 1.5°C above pre-industrial averaged over 12 months for the first time.·2023-08-23ReutersYevgeny Prigozhin killed in a plane crash north of Moscow.·2023-08-08APMaui wildfires destroy historic Lahaina and kill at least 100.·2023-06-23FTWagner Group mutiny; Prigozhin's column marches on Moscow, then turns back.·2023-05-05WHOWHO declares the end of the COVID-19 global health emergency.·2023-03-22WMOAtmospheric CO₂ breaks 420 ppm for the first time in 4 million years.·2023-02-06ReutersEarthquake in Türkiye and Syria kills more than 59,000.·2022-11-30ReutersOpenAI launches ChatGPT to the public; mass-market generative AI begins.·2022-10-27ReutersElon Musk completes Twitter takeover; mass layoffs and policy reversals follow.·2022-09-16GuardianMahsa Amini dies in Iranian custody; women-led protests sweep the country.·2022-09-08BBCQueen Elizabeth II dies after 70 years on the throne.·2022-08-31ReutersPakistan floods displace 33 million; a third of the country underwater.·2022-06-24NYTUS Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade, ending the constitutional right to abortion.·2022-05-24NYTGunman kills 19 children and 2 teachers at Robb Elementary in Uvalde, Texas.·2022-03-09APRussian shelling of a Mariupol maternity hospital draws global condemnation.·2022-02-24BBCRussia launches full-scale invasion of Ukraine; largest land war in Europe since 1945.·2021-11-30NatureOmicron variant detected in southern Africa; spreads globally within weeks.·2021-10-31Carbon BriefIPCC: world on a 2.7°C warming track even if every Paris pledge is met.·2021-08-15ReutersTaliban enter Kabul; Afghan government collapses within hours of US withdrawal.·2021-07-09BBCWestern Canada heat dome kills 600 in days; Lytton burns to the ground.·2021-07-01BBCHong Kong's Apple Daily forced to shut as Beijing tightens national-security law.·2021-03-23FTContainer ship Ever Given blocks the Suez Canal for six days, halting global trade.·2021-02-15Texas TribuneTexas power grid collapses in winter storm; hundreds die in their homes.·2021-01-06ReutersPro-Trump mob storms the US Capitol to block certification of the election; five dead.·2020-12-31WHOGlobal COVID-19 deaths pass 1.8 million in the pandemic's first year.·2020-11-07APBiden defeats Trump; Trump refuses to concede the election.·2020-09-09SF ChronicleCalifornia wildfire smoke turns the San Francisco sky a dystopian orange.·2020-08-04Al JazeeraBeirut port explosion kills more than 200 and flattens half the city.·2020-05-25NYTGeorge Floyd killed by Minneapolis police; protests sweep cities worldwide.·2020-03-11BBCWHO declares COVID-19 a pandemic; global lockdowns begin.·2020-01-30ReutersWHO declares novel coronavirus a global health emergency.·2026-05-20Carbon Brief12-month global temperature anomaly stays above 1.55°C for the third consecutive year.·2026-02-05FASNew START Treaty officially expires with no successor agreement; nuclear-arms-control architecture collapses.·2025-12-04ReutersEuropean far-right gains in multiple national elections; centrist coalitions struggle to form.·2025-11-12ReutersWhite-collar AI layoffs accelerate across legal, marketing, and customer-support sectors.·2025-10-30WHOWHO: adolescent mental-health diagnoses up sharply versus pre-pandemic baseline.·2025-09-15LancetLancet study: indirect death toll from Gaza war likely exceeds 186,000.·2025-07-22CopernicusEurope shatters multiple national heat records in July heatwave; 50°C hit in parts of the south.·2025-06-22CNNUS bombs Iranian nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan during '12-day war.'·2025-06-13ReutersIsrael launches large-scale strikes on Iranian nuclear and command targets.·2025-04-30BBCIndia and Pakistan exchange strikes after Pahalgam attack in Kashmir.·2025-04-02ReutersTrump announces sweeping 'reciprocal' tariffs; global markets sell off hard.·2025-02-06ReutersTrump pauses most USAID funding; foreign-aid programs and partners scramble.·2025-01-20ReutersTrump returns to the White House; day-one executive orders on tariffs, deportations, climate, and TikTok.·2024-12-08ReutersBashar al-Assad regime falls in Syria after 53 years; rebels enter Damascus.·2024-11-21Al JazeeraICC issues arrest warrant for Netanyahu over Gaza war crimes allegations.·2024-11-05APDonald Trump wins second term; Republicans take both chambers of Congress.·2024-09-27ReutersIsraeli airstrike kills Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut.·2024-09-17ReutersCoordinated pager attacks in Lebanon kill dozens and wound thousands attributed to Hezbollah.·2024-08-24FTPavel Durov arrested in France; Telegram free-speech and crime debate erupts.·2024-08-04ReutersOpenAI o1 'reasoning' model debuts; cost of intelligent compute keeps falling.·2024-07-13ReutersTrump shot at Pennsylvania rally; survives.·2024-05-30ReutersDonald Trump becomes first US former president convicted of a felony.·2024-04-13BBCIran launches its first-ever direct strike on Israel: 300+ missiles and drones.·2024-02-16ReutersAlexei Navalny dies in Russian Arctic penal colony.·2024-01-26APICJ orders Israel to prevent genocidal acts in Gaza; genocide case proceeds.·2024-01-09ReutersHouthi attacks on Red Sea shipping force major carriers to reroute around Africa.·2023-12-12ReutersCOP28 ends with first-ever call for the world to 'transition away from fossil fuels.'·2023-11-15UN OCHAGaza death toll passes 11,000; UN warns of famine and collapse of medical system.·2023-10-07ReutersHamas attacks southern Israel; 1,195 killed and 251 hostages taken.·2023-09-08CopernicusEarth surpasses 1.5°C above pre-industrial averaged over 12 months for the first time.·2023-08-23ReutersYevgeny Prigozhin killed in a plane crash north of Moscow.·2023-08-08APMaui wildfires destroy historic Lahaina and kill at least 100.·2023-06-23FTWagner Group mutiny; Prigozhin's column marches on Moscow, then turns back.·2023-05-05WHOWHO declares the end of the COVID-19 global health emergency.·2023-03-22WMOAtmospheric CO₂ breaks 420 ppm for the first time in 4 million years.·2023-02-06ReutersEarthquake in Türkiye and Syria kills more than 59,000.·2022-11-30ReutersOpenAI launches ChatGPT to the public; mass-market generative AI begins.·2022-10-27ReutersElon Musk completes Twitter takeover; mass layoffs and policy reversals follow.·2022-09-16GuardianMahsa Amini dies in Iranian custody; women-led protests sweep the country.·2022-09-08BBCQueen Elizabeth II dies after 70 years on the throne.·2022-08-31ReutersPakistan floods displace 33 million; a third of the country underwater.·2022-06-24NYTUS Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade, ending the constitutional right to abortion.·2022-05-24NYTGunman kills 19 children and 2 teachers at Robb Elementary in Uvalde, Texas.·2022-03-09APRussian shelling of a Mariupol maternity hospital draws global condemnation.·2022-02-24BBCRussia launches full-scale invasion of Ukraine; largest land war in Europe since 1945.·2021-11-30NatureOmicron variant detected in southern Africa; spreads globally within weeks.·2021-10-31Carbon BriefIPCC: world on a 2.7°C warming track even if every Paris pledge is met.·2021-08-15ReutersTaliban enter Kabul; Afghan government collapses within hours of US withdrawal.·2021-07-09BBCWestern Canada heat dome kills 600 in days; Lytton burns to the ground.·2021-07-01BBCHong Kong's Apple Daily forced to shut as Beijing tightens national-security law.·2021-03-23FTContainer ship Ever Given blocks the Suez Canal for six days, halting global trade.·2021-02-15Texas TribuneTexas power grid collapses in winter storm; hundreds die in their homes.·2021-01-06ReutersPro-Trump mob storms the US Capitol to block certification of the election; five dead.·2020-12-31WHOGlobal COVID-19 deaths pass 1.8 million in the pandemic's first year.·2020-11-07APBiden defeats Trump; Trump refuses to concede the election.·2020-09-09SF ChronicleCalifornia wildfire smoke turns the San Francisco sky a dystopian orange.·2020-08-04Al JazeeraBeirut port explosion kills more than 200 and flattens half the city.·2020-05-25NYTGeorge Floyd killed by Minneapolis police; protests sweep cities worldwide.·2020-03-11BBCWHO declares COVID-19 a pandemic; global lockdowns begin.·2020-01-30ReutersWHO declares novel coronavirus a global health emergency.·
DYING·HUMANITY / COUNTRY / CN
🇨🇳
China
64ConcerningThe rising power, the rising risk vector.
The world's number-two economy and number-one carbon emitter, building an oceangoing navy at a pace not seen since the early-twentieth-century Anglo-German race, while binding the Global South to itself through infrastructure finance the West has stopped offering.
01 · COUNTRY SIGNALS
What the index reads for this country
Six axes specific to country-level pressure: war involvement, climate burden, mental-health load, press freedom, polarisation, inequality. Each scored 0 to 10.
WAR INVOLVEMENT
5/10
CLIMATE BURDEN
9/10
MENTAL-HEALTH LOAD
6/10
PRESS FREEDOM
9/10
POLARISATION
4/10
INEQUALITY
7/10
02 · TWO READINGS
How the country sees itself, how the world sees it
Hand-curated paraphrases of the dominant framings drawn from named outlets on each side. Not journalism; an attempt to make the gap visible so the reader can hold both at once.
DOMESTIC NARRATIVE
Peaceful rise reclaiming China's natural place after a century of humiliation. Taiwan is an inalienable province. Belt and Road is South-South cooperation. Western objections are containment dressed as principle.
“The reunification of the motherland is a historical inevitability that no foreign force can prevent.”
SOURCES: Xinhua, People's Daily, Global Times, CCTV
EXTERNAL NARRATIVE
Authoritarian techno-state militarising disputed waters, surveilling its population at unprecedented scale, exporting digital authoritarianism, and racing toward a Taiwan crisis that could end the Pax Americana.
“Beijing is rehearsing a blockade in slow motion, and the world is watching it happen.”
SOURCES: Financial Times, The Economist, Reuters, BBC, Taiwan's CommonWealth Magazine
03 · ACTIVE CONFLICTS
China is currently entangled in 1 conflict
Conflict pairs sourced from the conflict registry used by the world map. Status reflects the most-elevated tier currently observable; intensity is editorial 0-10.
STANDOFF
US – China (Taiwan / Pacific)
since 2010 · intensity 6/10
Strategic competition centred on Taiwan; daily PLA incursions of the Taiwanese ADIZ, US Freedom of Navigation operations, semiconductor export controls. Not a shooting war, but the most dangerous standoff on Earth on most analyses.
04 · KEY STATS
The numbers behind the framing
$296B
Military spending
SIPRI 2024 estimate; second only to the US.
30%
Share of global emissions
Largest absolute emitter; per-capita roughly half of US.
~700M
Active surveillance cameras
Comparative Technology / IHS Markit estimates.
370+
PLA Navy ship count
ONI 2024; surpassed US Navy in absolute ship count circa 2020.
READ THISCountry profiles are hand-curated paraphrases of dominant framings, attributed to named outlets, not direct reporting. The point is to make the gap between domestic self-image and external reading visible at a glance, not to substitute for primary sources. Disagree? Tell me where.